========================================================== T H E P A P E R T R A I L Picks committed before kickoff. Graded in public. ========================================================== Week 2 · 2026 season · built 2026-09-17 CT SHA-256 of this file is published before the first kickoff. If the file changes, the hash changes. ---------------------------------------------------------- Model and market probabilities read as (model N · X% vs mkt Y%). A blank market figure means no price was logged for that pick. The badge on each pick is that market’s record: Untested under 40, Learning 40–100, Calibrated 100+. ---------------------------------------------------------- BEST BETS (47) CAR @ ATL Moneyline ATL (model 52.4% vs mkt 43.2%) +120 [Untested 16/40] We make this side more likely to win than the price implies. Bijan Robinson — Rush att UNDER 18.5 (model 17.7 · 57.4% vs mkt 48.1%) -105 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price. Bryce Young — Completions UNDER 19.5 (model 19 · 53.4% vs mkt 45.9%) +104 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — a tough matchup for the passing game. Bryce Young — Pass att UNDER 30.5 (model 29.7 · 53.5% vs mkt 46.8%) +100 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — a tough matchup for the passing game. CIN @ HOU Moneyline HOU (model 70.9% vs mkt 57.9%) -148 [Untested 16/40] We make this side more likely to win than the price implies. CLE @ TB Chris Godwin — Rec yds UNDER 47.5 (model 43 · 55.9% vs mkt 49.7%) -114 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number and a soft matchup for receivers. DET @ BUF Jahmyr Gibbs — Rush att UNDER 18.5 (model 16.9 · 61.8% vs mkt 53.0%) -150 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number and a tough matchup for the run game. Jared Goff — Completions OVER 23.5 (model 24.1 · 54.9% vs mkt 48.9%) -110 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — the game script points his way and a tough matchup for the passing game. Josh Allen — Completions UNDER 20.5 (model 19.3 · 56.8% vs mkt 45.6%) +105 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. Josh Allen — Pass att UNDER 30.5 (model 28.5 · 58.4% vs mkt 49.8%) -123 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. Josh Allen — Pass yds UNDER 250.5 (model 235.3 · 56.5% vs mkt 49.9%) -114 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. GB @ NYJ Moneyline GB (model 68.3% vs mkt 62.7%) -182 [Untested 16/40] We make this side more likely to win than the price implies. Breece Hall — Rush att UNDER 16.5 (model 15.5 · 60.1% vs mkt 52.4%) -124 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — a tough matchup for the run game. Chris Brooks — Rec yds UNDER 7.5 (model 6.2 · 56.9% vs mkt 50.3%) -117 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number and a tough matchup for receivers. Chris Brooks — Rush yds UNDER 25.5 (model 21.1 · 61.4% vs mkt 50.4%) -116 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number, the game script points his way and a tough matchup for the run game. Jayden Reed — Rec yds UNDER 35.5 (model 31.8 · 57.5% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. Jordan Love — Completions UNDER 21.5 (model 20.3 · 57.9% vs mkt 49.3%) -112 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. Matthew Golden — Rec yds UNDER 47.5 (model 41 · 58.4% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. IND @ KC Alec Pierce — Rec yds OVER 43.5 (model 51 · 59.6% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. Jonathan Taylor — Rush att UNDER 19.5 (model 18.2 · 60.3% vs mkt 52.0%) -122 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price. Patrick Mahomes — Rush yds OVER 16.5 (model 20.6 · 58.5% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a soft matchup for the run game. JAX @ DEN Moneyline JAX (model 56.1% vs mkt 42.0%) +126 [Untested 16/40] We make this side more likely to win than the price implies. Bhayshul Tuten — Rush att UNDER 11.5 (model 9.8 · 65.7% vs mkt 45.3%) +106 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. Bhayshul Tuten — Rush yds UNDER 50.5 (model 41.9 · 65.8% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. Trevor Lawrence — Pass yds OVER 218.5 (model 227.7 · 57.0% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a tough matchup for the passing game. LV @ LAC Omarion Hampton — Rush att UNDER 15.5 (model 15.1 · 54.4% vs mkt 46.6%) +101 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number and the game script points his way. Total UNDER 43.5 (model 39.5 · 65.0% vs mkt 50.3%) -112 [Untested 15/40] We land a clear distance off the posted total. MIA @ SF Christian McCaffrey — Rush att OVER 14.5 (model 15.7 · 58.2% vs mkt 48.4%) -106 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a soft matchup for the run game. Malik Washington — Rec yds UNDER 32.5 (model 29.4 · 56.7% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number, the game script points his way and a tough matchup for receivers. MIN @ CHI Aaron Jones — Rush yds UNDER 61.5 (model 54.2 · 61.0% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. Caleb Williams — Completions UNDER 19.5 (model 18.8 · 56.6% vs mkt 47.9%) -104 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price. NO @ BAL Derrick Henry — Rush yds OVER 87.5 (model 94.8 · 56.2% vs mkt 50.1%) -114 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a soft matchup for the run game. Lamar Jackson — Completions UNDER 18.5 (model 16.9 · 64.6% vs mkt 49.3%) -122 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. Lamar Jackson — Pass att UNDER 27.5 (model 25.5 · 61.1% vs mkt 48.9%) -108 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. NYG @ LAR Jaxson Dart — Rush att UNDER 5.5 (model 5.5 · 49.8% vs mkt 43.3%) +115 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits above this number. Matthew Stafford — Completions UNDER 21.5 (model 20.7 · 57.5% vs mkt 48.4%) -108 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price — a tough matchup for the passing game. PHI @ TEN Moneyline PHI (model 82.5% vs mkt 75.5%) -335 [Untested 16/40] We make this side more likely to win than the price implies. Jalen Hurts — Completions UNDER 17.5 (model 17 · 55.0% vs mkt 46.6%) +101 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price. PIT @ NE Aaron Rodgers — Pass yds OVER 207.5 (model 216.8 · 56.9% vs mkt 50.1%) -115 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — the game script points his way. DeMario Douglas — Rec yds UNDER 34.5 (model 29.9 · 57.3% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. Drake Maye — Completions UNDER 20.5 (model 19.9 · 54.8% vs mkt 48.2%) -112 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price. SEA @ ARI Moneyline SEA (model 79.3% vs mkt 65.7%) -210 [Untested 16/40] We make this side more likely to win than the price implies. Michael Wilson — Rec yds OVER 37.5 (model 44.3 · 56.7% vs mkt 49.9%) -114 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. Trey McBride — Rec yds OVER 60.5 (model 65.6 · 57.4% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. WSH @ DAL Dak Prescott — Pass yds UNDER 262.5 (model 250.5 · 56.3% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — a tough matchup for the passing game. Jacory Croskey-Merritt — Rush att UNDER 13.5 (model 12.3 · 61.1% vs mkt 50.5%) -130 [Calibrated 542] A clear disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. Jacory Croskey-Merritt — Rush yds UNDER 54.5 (model 49.3 · 56.9% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] A real disagreement with the price — his own recent work sits below this number. WORTH A LOOK (72) CIN @ HOU C.J. Stroud — Pass yds UNDER 232.5 (model 226.5 · 54.3% vs mkt 50.1%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. Total OVER 45.5 (model 48.4 · 61.0% vs mkt 51.4%) -118 [Untested 15/40] We land just off the posted total — a lean, not a strong call. CLE @ TB Harold Fannin Jr. — Rec yds OVER 35.5 (model 37.7 · 53.8% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. DET @ BUF Dawson Knox — Rec yds OVER 12.5 (model 14.2 · 54.3% vs mkt 50.2%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number. Jahmyr Gibbs — Rush yds UNDER 86.5 (model 79.5 · 55.3% vs mkt 49.8%) -113 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — a tough matchup for the run game. James Cook — Rec yds UNDER 17.5 (model 15.6 · 54.4% vs mkt 50.5%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits below this number and a tough matchup for receivers. Jared Goff — Pass yds OVER 267.5 (model 273.1 · 53.8% vs mkt 50.1%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — the game script points his way and a tough matchup for the passing game. Joshua Palmer — Rec yds OVER 13.5 (model 15.2 · 54.3% vs mkt 50.0%) -113 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number. Keon Coleman — Rec yds OVER 12.5 (model 14.3 · 54.0% vs mkt 50.4%) -117 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number. GB @ NYJ Adonai Mitchell — Rec yds OVER 33.5 (model 36.3 · 54.1% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a soft matchup for receivers. Breece Hall — Rush yds UNDER 67.5 (model 64.1 · 54.0% vs mkt 49.9%) -113 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — a tough matchup for the run game. Jordan Love — Pass att UNDER 33.5 (model 31.9 · 57.6% vs mkt 53.1%) -127 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits below this number. Jordan Love — Pass yds UNDER 257.5 (model 246.9 · 55.0% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. Mason Taylor — Rec yds OVER 17.5 (model 19.2 · 53.7% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a soft matchup for receivers. IND @ KC Daniel Jones — Pass yds OVER 215.5 (model 225 · 55.4% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — the game script points his way. Jonathan Taylor — Rec yds OVER 16.5 (model 18 · 54.0% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. Jonathan Taylor — Rush yds UNDER 86.5 (model 81.9 · 53.7% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. Patrick Mahomes — Completions UNDER 19.5 (model 19.4 · 50.8% vs mkt 46.6%) +101 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number and a soft matchup for the passing game. Xavier Worthy — Rec yds UNDER 37.5 (model 35 · 54.4% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — a soft matchup for receivers. JAX @ DEN Brenton Strange — Rec yds OVER 33.5 (model 35.4 · 53.5% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a tough matchup for receivers. Brian Thomas Jr — Rec yds OVER 34.5 (model 36.6 · 53.8% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number, he is carrying a questionable tag and the game script points his way. J.K. Dobbins — Rush att UNDER 14.5 (model 14.3 · 52.4% vs mkt 46.4%) +102 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — the game script points his way. J.K. Dobbins — Rush yds OVER 60.5 (model 62.8 · 53.7% vs mkt 50.1%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. LV @ LAC Moneyline LAC (model 77.4% vs mkt 73.9%) -310 [Untested 16/40] A small lean on the price, no more than that. Ashton Jeanty — Rush att UNDER 17.5 (model 16.5 · 56.4% vs mkt 51.8%) -121 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — a soft matchup for the run game. Ashton Jeanty — Rush yds UNDER 65.5 (model 61.6 · 54.5% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — a soft matchup for the run game. Justin Herbert — Pass yds UNDER 222.5 (model 215.3 · 53.6% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. MIA @ SF Brock Purdy — Pass yds UNDER 232.5 (model 225.2 · 54.4% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. Brock Purdy — Rush yds OVER 13.5 (model 15.4 · 55.6% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. Christian McCaffrey — Rush yds OVER 59.5 (model 63.8 · 55.4% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a soft matchup for the run game. De'Von Achane — Rush att UNDER 14.5 (model 13.8 · 56.0% vs mkt 51.9%) -122 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. De'Von Achane — Rush yds OVER 53.5 (model 57.2 · 54.0% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number. Demarcus Robinson — Rec yds UNDER 25.5 (model 24 · 53.8% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. Greg Dulcich — Rec yds OVER 23.5 (model 25.9 · 54.6% vs mkt 50.1%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a tough matchup for receivers. MIN @ CHI Caleb Williams — Pass yds UNDER 224.5 (model 219.7 · 53.7% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. Colston Loveland — Rec yds UNDER 46.5 (model 41.9 · 55.8% vs mkt 50.1%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits below this number. D'Andre Swift — Rush att UNDER 14.5 (model 13.9 · 56.8% vs mkt 51.3%) -125 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — he is carrying a questionable tag and the game script points his way. Luther Burden III — Rec yds UNDER 51.5 (model 47.9 · 53.9% vs mkt 50.1%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. NO @ BAL Chris Olave — Rec yds OVER 71.5 (model 76 · 54.5% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. Devaughn Vele — Rec yds UNDER 42.5 (model 38.6 · 55.4% vs mkt 50.1%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits below this number and the game script points his way. Lamar Jackson — Pass yds UNDER 219.5 (model 210.9 · 55.8% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. Lamar Jackson — Rush yds UNDER 40.5 (model 37.1 · 55.9% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits below this number and the game script points his way. Tyler Shough — Completions OVER 21.5 (model 22.7 · 55.1% vs mkt 50.6%) -117 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — the game script points his way. Tyler Shough — Pass yds OVER 237.5 (model 251.4 · 55.1% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. NYG @ LAR Cam Skattebo — Rush att UNDER 12.5 (model 12.2 · 51.8% vs mkt 46.6%) +101 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number. Jaxson Dart — Completions UNDER 19.5 (model 19.4 · 50.6% vs mkt 46.6%) +101 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits below this number and the game script points his way. Kyren Williams — Rush yds OVER 58.5 (model 62.1 · 55.9% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a tough matchup for the run game. PHI @ TEN Cam Ward — Completions OVER 18.5 (model 19.4 · 55.6% vs mkt 50.1%) -113 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — the game script points his way and a soft matchup for the passing game. Cam Ward — Pass att OVER 32.5 (model 33.5 · 54.3% vs mkt 50.2%) -120 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — the game script points his way and a soft matchup for the passing game. Cam Ward — Pass yds OVER 181.5 (model 188.5 · 54.4% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — the game script points his way and a soft matchup for the passing game. DeVonta Smith — Rec yds UNDER 60.5 (model 56 · 54.6% vs mkt 50.1%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. Jalen Hurts — Pass att UNDER 28.5 (model 27.4 · 56.1% vs mkt 51.8%) -121 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. Jalen Hurts — Pass yds UNDER 206.5 (model 198.1 · 55.0% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. Tyjae Spears — Rec yds OVER 15.5 (model 16.9 · 54.1% vs mkt 50.3%) -117 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a soft matchup for receivers. PIT @ NE Moneyline NE (model 73.5% vs mkt 68.5%) -235 [Untested 16/40] A small lean on the price, no more than that. Aaron Rodgers — Completions OVER 21.5 (model 22.3 · 55.3% vs mkt 49.7%) -122 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — the game script points his way. Aaron Rodgers — Pass att OVER 35.5 (model 36 · 52.6% vs mkt 48.6%) -107 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — the game script points his way. Darnell Washington — Rec yds OVER 15.5 (model 17.6 · 54.9% vs mkt 49.9%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. Drake Maye — Pass att UNDER 29.5 (model 28.4 · 55.5% vs mkt 51.1%) -125 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market. TreVeyon Henderson — Rush yds OVER 38.5 (model 42.3 · 54.2% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number, the game script points his way and a tough matchup for the run game. SEA @ ARI Jacoby Brissett — Completions OVER 21.5 (model 22.7 · 54.3% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. Jacoby Brissett — Pass yds OVER 220.5 (model 235.7 · 55.3% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. Marvin Harrison Jr. — Rec yds OVER 34.5 (model 37.8 · 54.9% vs mkt 49.9%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits above this number and the game script points his way. WSH @ DAL CeeDee Lamb — Rec yds UNDER 74.5 (model 69.5 · 55.2% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — a tough matchup for receivers. Dak Prescott — Completions UNDER 22.5 (model 21.8 · 54.4% vs mkt 48.9%) -110 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — a tough matchup for the passing game. Dak Prescott — Pass att UNDER 33.5 (model 32.5 · 54.7% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — a tough matchup for the passing game. Javonte Williams — Rec yds UNDER 12.5 (model 11.5 · 54.3% vs mkt 50.0%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits below this number and a soft matchup for receivers. Jayden Daniels — Completions UNDER 19.5 (model 18.9 · 54.8% vs mkt 49.2%) -113 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits below this number, the game script points his way and a tough matchup for the passing game. Jayden Daniels — Pass yds UNDER 208.5 (model 201.8 · 55.2% vs mkt 50.0%) -115 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — his own recent work sits below this number, the game script points his way and a tough matchup for the passing game. Jayden Daniels — Rush yds UNDER 38.5 (model 36 · 54.3% vs mkt 49.9%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — a tough matchup for the run game. Ryan Flournoy — Rec yds UNDER 29.5 (model 27 · 53.2% vs mkt 49.6%) -114 [Calibrated 542] Thin edge, mostly agrees with the market — a tough matchup for receivers. Total OVER 50.5 (model 53.6 · 61.7% vs mkt 50.0%) -110 [Untested 15/40] We land just off the posted total — a lean, not a strong call. Passed on 747 other markets the model looked at — 145 thin edge, 128 team change, 287 muted TD, 93 muted receptions, 6 line out of range, 58 no projection, 30 under 3 games. ========================================================== REFUSED (747) — looked at, not picked Nothing below is a bet. These are the markets the model saw and declined, with the reason. They are inside the hash so the list cannot be trimmed after the fact. — TEAM CHANGE — AJ Dillon — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Austin Hooper — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Brian Robinson Jr. — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Cooper Rush — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Darren Waller — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Feleipe Franks — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Jahan Dotson — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] John Metchie III — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Olamide Zaccheaus — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] David Montgomery — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] David Montgomery — Rush yds 66.5 [CIN@HOU] Foster Moreau — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Kayshon Boutte — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Jaleel McLaughlin — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Kenny Gainwell — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Tylan Wallace — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] DJ Moore — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] DJ Moore — Rec yds 63.5 [DET@BUF] DJ Moore — Receptions 4.5 [DET@BUF] Greg Dortch — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Tay Martin — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Tyler Conklin — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Geno Smith — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Geno Smith — Completions 20.5 [GB@NYJ] Geno Smith — Pass att 30.5 [GB@NYJ] Geno Smith — Pass yds 204.5 [GB@NYJ] Geno Smith — Rush yds 7.5 [GB@NYJ] Jonnu Smith — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Jonnu Smith — Rec yds 12.5 [GB@NYJ] Jonnu Smith — Receptions 1.5 [GB@NYJ] Kaleb Johnson — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Skyy Moore — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Ben VanSumeren — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Keenan Allen — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Keenan Allen — Rec yds 30.5 [IND@KC] Keenan Allen — Receptions 3.5 [IND@KC] Kenneth Walker III — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Kenneth Walker III — Rec yds 18.5 [IND@KC] Kenneth Walker III — Receptions 2.5 [IND@KC] Kenneth Walker III — Rush att 18.5 [IND@KC] Kenneth Walker III — Rush yds 79.5 [IND@KC] Ameer Abdullah — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Chris Rodriguez Jr. — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Jaylen Waddle — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Jaylen Waddle — Rec yds 52.5 [JAX@DEN] Jaylen Waddle — Receptions 4.5 [JAX@DEN] Alec Ingold — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Charlie Kolar — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Cody White — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Connor Heyward — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Dareke Young — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] David Njoku — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Jalen Nailor — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Keaton Mitchell — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Kirk Cousins — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Kirk Cousins — Pass yds 191.5 [LV@LAC] Deebo Samuel — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Deebo Samuel — Rec yds 32.5 [MIA@SF] Deebo Samuel — Receptions 3.5 [MIA@SF] Jalen Tolbert — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] KhaDarel Hodge — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Malik Willis — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Malik Willis — Completions 16.5 [MIA@SF] Malik Willis — Pass att 27.5 [MIA@SF] Malik Willis — Pass yds 178.5 [MIA@SF] Malik Willis — Rush yds 34.5 [MIA@SF] Mike Evans — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Mike Evans — Rec yds 47.5 [MIA@SF] Mike Evans — Receptions 3.5 [MIA@SF] Ryan Miller — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] DeeJay Dallas — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Jauan Jennings — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Jauan Jennings — Rec yds 18.5 [MIN@CHI] Jauan Jennings — Receptions 1.5 [MIN@CHI] Kalif Raymond — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Kalif Raymond — Rec yds 24.5 [MIN@CHI] Kalif Raymond — Receptions 2.5 [MIN@CHI] Chris Moore — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Durham Smythe — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Noah Fant — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Travis Etienne Jr. — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Braxton Berrios — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Darnell Mooney — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Isaiah Likely — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Isaiah Likely — Rec yds 44.5 [NYG@LAR] Isaiah Likely — Receptions 4.5 [NYG@LAR] Najee Harris — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Patrick Ricard — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Daniel Bellinger — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Dontayvion Wicks — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Dontayvion Wicks — Rec yds 30.5 [PHI@TEN] Dontayvion Wicks — Receptions 2.5 [PHI@TEN] Johnny Mundt — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Kylen Granson — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Wan'Dale Robinson — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Wan'Dale Robinson — Rec yds 35.5 [PHI@TEN] Wan'Dale Robinson — Receptions 4.5 [PHI@TEN] Cameron Latu — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Corey Kiner — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Michael Pittman Jr. — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Michael Pittman Jr. — Rec yds 36.5 [PIT@NE] Michael Pittman Jr. — Receptions 3.5 [PIT@NE] Reggie Gilliam — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Rico Dowdle — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Rico Dowdle — Rec yds 12.5 [PIT@NE] Rico Dowdle — Receptions 2.5 [PIT@NE] Rico Dowdle — Rush yds 38.5 [PIT@NE] Robert Tonyan — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Romeo Doubs — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Romeo Doubs — Rec yds 39.5 [PIT@NE] Romeo Doubs — Receptions 3.5 [PIT@NE] Devin Duvernay — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Emanuel Wilson — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Hunter Long — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Kendrick Bourne — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Tyler Allgeier — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Chig Okonkwo — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Dyami Brown — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Emari Demercado — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Emari Demercado — Rush yds 10.5 [WSH@DAL] Rachaad White — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Rachaad White — Rec yds 11.5 [WSH@DAL] Rachaad White — Receptions 1.5 [WSH@DAL] Rachaad White — Rush yds 22.5 [WSH@DAL] Stefon Diggs — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Stefon Diggs — Rec yds 46.5 [WSH@DAL] Stefon Diggs — Receptions 4.5 [WSH@DAL] Tyler Goodson — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] — UNDER 3 GAMES — Denzel Boston — Rec yds 30.5 [CLE@TB] Denzel Boston — Receptions 2.5 [CLE@TB] Deshaun Watson — Completions 17.5 [CLE@TB] Deshaun Watson — Pass att 28.5 [CLE@TB] Deshaun Watson — Pass yds 175.5 [CLE@TB] KC Concepcion — Rec yds 30.5 [CLE@TB] KC Concepcion — Receptions 3.5 [CLE@TB] Kenyon Sadiq — Rec yds 20.5 [GB@NYJ] Kenyon Sadiq — Receptions 2.5 [GB@NYJ] MarShawn Lloyd — Rec yds 9.5 [GB@NYJ] MarShawn Lloyd — Receptions 1.5 [GB@NYJ] MarShawn Lloyd — Rush att 14.5 [GB@NYJ] MarShawn Lloyd — Rush yds 52.5 [GB@NYJ] Emmett Johnson — Rush yds 16.5 [IND@KC] Caleb Douglas — Rec yds 38.5 [MIA@SF] Caleb Douglas — Receptions 2.5 [MIA@SF] Chris Bell — Rec yds 19.5 [MIA@SF] Chris Bell — Receptions 1.5 [MIA@SF] Kaelon Black — Rush att 9.5 [MIA@SF] Kaelon Black — Rush yds 39.5 [MIA@SF] Carnell Tate — Rec yds 39.5 [PHI@TEN] Carnell Tate — Receptions 3.5 [PHI@TEN] Jadarian Price — Rush att 13.5 [SEA@ARI] Jadarian Price — Rush yds 57.5 [SEA@ARI] Jeremiyah Love — Rec yds 14.5 [SEA@ARI] Jeremiyah Love — Receptions 2.5 [SEA@ARI] Jeremiyah Love — Rush att 9.5 [SEA@ARI] Jeremiyah Love — Rush yds 36.5 [SEA@ARI] Antonio Williams — Rec yds 26.5 [WSH@DAL] Antonio Williams — Receptions 2.5 [WSH@DAL] — NO PROJECTION — Jonathon Brooks — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Colbie Young — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Dohnte Meyers — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Erick All — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Jared Wayne — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Marlin Klein — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Bauer Sharp — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Carsen Ryan — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Denzel Boston — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Deshaun Watson — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] KC Concepcion — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Michael Burton — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Ted Hurst III — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Kenyon Sadiq — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] MarShawn Lloyd — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Mark Redman — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Omar Cooper Jr. — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Cyrus Allen — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Deion Burks — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Emmett Johnson — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Jake Briningstool — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Seth McGowan — Anytime TD [IND@KC] CJ Williams — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Josh Cameron — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Nate Boerkircher — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Brenen Thompson — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Malik Benson — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Mike Washington Jr. — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Caleb Douglas — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Chris Bell — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] DJ Herman — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Jacob Cowing — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Kaelon Black — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Kevin Coleman Jr. — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Seydou Traore — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Will Kacmarek — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Gavin Bartholomew — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Max Bredeson — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Sam Roush — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Zavion Thomas — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Barion Brown — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Bryce Lance — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] CJ Donaldson — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Josh Cuevas — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Matthew Hibner — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Malachi Fields — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Odell Beckham Jr. — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Carnell Tate — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Makai Lemon — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Eli Raridon — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Germie Bernard — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Riley Nowakowski — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Tanner Arkin — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Jadarian Price — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Jeremiyah Love — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Montorie Foster Jr. — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Antonio Williams — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Kaytron Allen — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] — LINE OUT OF RANGE — Jared Goff — Rush yds 0.5 [DET@BUF] Sione Vaki — Rush yds 6.5 [DET@BUF] Aaron Rodgers — Rush yds 0.5 [PIT@NE] Drew Lock — Completions 18.5 [SEA@ARI] Drew Lock — Pass att 28.5 [SEA@ARI] Drew Lock — Pass yds 207.5 [SEA@ARI] — THIN EDGE — Total 43.5 [CAR@ATL] Bijan Robinson — Rec yds 42.5 [CAR@ATL] Bijan Robinson — Rush yds 82.5 [CAR@ATL] Bryce Young — Pass yds 216.5 [CAR@ATL] Drake London — Rec yds 56.5 [CAR@ATL] Jalen Coker — Rec yds 50.5 [CAR@ATL] Tetairoa McMillan — Rec yds 57.5 [CAR@ATL] Chase Brown — Rush yds 56.5 [CIN@HOU] Ja'Marr Chase — Rec yds 74.5 [CIN@HOU] Joe Burrow — Pass yds 248.5 [CIN@HOU] Mike Gesicki — Rec yds 23.5 [CIN@HOU] Tee Higgins — Rec yds 54.5 [CIN@HOU] Moneyline [CLE@TB] Total 41.5 [CLE@TB] Baker Mayfield — Completions 18.5 [CLE@TB] Baker Mayfield — Pass att 27.5 [CLE@TB] Baker Mayfield — Pass yds 204.5 [CLE@TB] Bucky Irving — Rush att 14.5 [CLE@TB] Bucky Irving — Rush yds 58.5 [CLE@TB] Cade Otton — Rec yds 26.5 [CLE@TB] Emeka Egbuka — Rec yds 49.5 [CLE@TB] Jerry Jeudy — Rec yds 28.5 [CLE@TB] Quinshon Judkins — Rush att 14.5 [CLE@TB] Quinshon Judkins — Rush yds 48.5 [CLE@TB] Moneyline [DET@BUF] Total 54.5 [DET@BUF] Amon-Ra St. Brown — Rec yds 78.5 [DET@BUF] Dalton Kincaid — Rec yds 52.5 [DET@BUF] Isaac TeSlaa — Rec yds 16.5 [DET@BUF] Jahmyr Gibbs — Rec yds 28.5 [DET@BUF] James Cook — Rush att 17.5 [DET@BUF] James Cook — Rush yds 81.5 [DET@BUF] Jameson Williams — Rec yds 57.5 [DET@BUF] Jared Goff — Pass att 35.5 [DET@BUF] Josh Allen — Rush att 6.5 [DET@BUF] Josh Allen — Rush yds 30.5 [DET@BUF] Khalil Shakir — Rec yds 41.5 [DET@BUF] Sam LaPorta — Rec yds 45.5 [DET@BUF] Total 44.5 [GB@NYJ] Braelon Allen — Rush yds 24.5 [GB@NYJ] Breece Hall — Rec yds 18.5 [GB@NYJ] Christian Watson — Rec yds 60.5 [GB@NYJ] Garrett Wilson — Rec yds 61.5 [GB@NYJ] Jordan Love — Rush yds 8.5 [GB@NYJ] Tucker Kraft — Rec yds 46.5 [GB@NYJ] Moneyline [IND@KC] Total 46.5 [IND@KC] Daniel Jones — Completions 21.5 [IND@KC] Daniel Jones — Pass att 32.5 [IND@KC] Daniel Jones — Rush yds 8.5 [IND@KC] Josh Downs — Rec yds 37.5 [IND@KC] Patrick Mahomes — Pass att 30.5 [IND@KC] Patrick Mahomes — Pass yds 220.5 [IND@KC] Rashee Rice — Rec yds 54.5 [IND@KC] Travis Kelce — Rec yds 41.5 [IND@KC] Tyler Warren — Rec yds 42.5 [IND@KC] Tyquan Thornton — Rec yds 14.5 [IND@KC] Total 45.5 [JAX@DEN] Bo Nix — Completions 21.5 [JAX@DEN] Bo Nix — Pass att 33.5 [JAX@DEN] Bo Nix — Pass yds 222.5 [JAX@DEN] Courtland Sutton — Rec yds 39.5 [JAX@DEN] Jakobi Meyers — Rec yds 36.5 [JAX@DEN] Parker Washington — Rec yds 54.5 [JAX@DEN] Trevor Lawrence — Completions 19.5 [JAX@DEN] Trevor Lawrence — Pass att 32.5 [JAX@DEN] Ashton Jeanty — Rec yds 27.5 [LV@LAC] Omarion Hampton — Rush yds 64.5 [LV@LAC] Moneyline [MIA@SF] Total 45 [MIA@SF] Brock Purdy — Completions 19.5 [MIA@SF] Brock Purdy — Pass att 28.5 [MIA@SF] Christian McCaffrey — Rec yds 42.5 [MIA@SF] De'Von Achane — Rec yds 25.5 [MIA@SF] George Kittle — Rec yds 41.5 [MIA@SF] Moneyline [MIN@CHI] Total 48 [MIN@CHI] Aaron Jones — Rec yds 14.5 [MIN@CHI] Caleb Williams — Pass att 31.5 [MIN@CHI] Caleb Williams — Rush yds 25.5 [MIN@CHI] Carson Wentz — Completions 19.5 [MIN@CHI] Carson Wentz — Pass att 30.5 [MIN@CHI] Carson Wentz — Pass yds 215.5 [MIN@CHI] Carson Wentz — Rush yds 8.5 [MIN@CHI] Cole Kmet — Rec yds 14.5 [MIN@CHI] D'Andre Swift — Rec yds 11.5 [MIN@CHI] D'Andre Swift — Rush yds 59.5 [MIN@CHI] Jordan Addison — Rec yds 36.5 [MIN@CHI] Josh Oliver — Rec yds 11.5 [MIN@CHI] Justin Jefferson — Rec yds 77.5 [MIN@CHI] Kyle Monangai — Rush att 8.5 [MIN@CHI] Kyle Monangai — Rush yds 37.5 [MIN@CHI] Rome Odunze — Rec yds 39.5 [MIN@CHI] T.J. Hockenson — Rec yds 27.5 [MIN@CHI] Moneyline [NO@BAL] Total 46.5 [NO@BAL] Tyler Shough — Pass att 34.5 [NO@BAL] Moneyline [NYG@LAR] Total 48 [NYG@LAR] Blake Corum — Rush att 10.5 [NYG@LAR] Blake Corum — Rush yds 42.5 [NYG@LAR] Cam Skattebo — Rush yds 50.5 [NYG@LAR] Davante Adams — Rec yds 44.5 [NYG@LAR] Jaxson Dart — Pass att 31.5 [NYG@LAR] Jaxson Dart — Pass yds 212.5 [NYG@LAR] Jaxson Dart — Rush yds 30.5 [NYG@LAR] Kyren Williams — Rush att 14.5 [NYG@LAR] Malik Nabers — Rec yds 63.5 [NYG@LAR] Matthew Stafford — Pass att 32.5 [NYG@LAR] Matthew Stafford — Pass yds 242.5 [NYG@LAR] Puka Nacua — Rec yds 85.5 [NYG@LAR] Total 39.5 [PHI@TEN] Cam Ward — Rush yds 11.5 [PHI@TEN] Dallas Goedert — Rec yds 37.5 [PHI@TEN] Gunnar Helm — Rec yds 22.5 [PHI@TEN] Jalen Hurts — Rush yds 29.5 [PHI@TEN] Saquon Barkley — Rec yds 11.5 [PHI@TEN] Saquon Barkley — Rush yds 75.5 [PHI@TEN] Tony Pollard — Rec yds 8.5 [PHI@TEN] Tony Pollard — Rush att 11.5 [PHI@TEN] Tony Pollard — Rush yds 44.5 [PHI@TEN] Tyjae Spears — Rush yds 17.5 [PHI@TEN] Total 41.5 [PIT@NE] DK Metcalf — Rec yds 52.5 [PIT@NE] Drake Maye — Pass yds 224.5 [PIT@NE] Drake Maye — Rush yds 25.5 [PIT@NE] Hunter Henry — Rec yds 37.5 [PIT@NE] Jaylen Warren — Rec yds 18.5 [PIT@NE] Jaylen Warren — Rush yds 41.5 [PIT@NE] Mack Hollins — Rec yds 35.5 [PIT@NE] Pat Freiermuth — Rec yds 26.5 [PIT@NE] Rhamondre Stevenson — Rec yds 17.5 [PIT@NE] Rhamondre Stevenson — Rush yds 49.5 [PIT@NE] Roman Wilson — Rec yds 15.5 [PIT@NE] Total 41 [SEA@ARI] Jacoby Brissett — Pass att 34.5 [SEA@ARI] Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Rec yds 81.5 [SEA@ARI] Moneyline [WSH@DAL] Dak Prescott — Rush yds 8.5 [WSH@DAL] George Pickens — Rec yds 61.5 [WSH@DAL] Jake Ferguson — Rec yds 26.5 [WSH@DAL] Javonte Williams — Rush att 16.5 [WSH@DAL] Javonte Williams — Rush yds 74.5 [WSH@DAL] Jayden Daniels — Pass att 29.5 [WSH@DAL] Terry McLaurin — Rec yds 53.5 [WSH@DAL] — MUTED TD — Bijan Robinson — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Bryce Young — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Brycen Tremayne — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Charlie Woerner — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Chris Blair — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Chuba Hubbard — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Drake London — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Ja'Tavion Sanders — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Jalen Coker — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Kyle Pitts — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Mitchell Evans — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Tetairoa McMillan — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Tommy Tremble — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Xavier Legette — Anytime TD [CAR@ATL] Andrei Iosivas — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] British Brooks — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] C.J. Stroud — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Cade Stover — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Chase Brown — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Dalton Schultz — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Drew Sample — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Ja'Marr Chase — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Jaylin Noel — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Joe Burrow — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Ke'Shawn Williams — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Mike Gesicki — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Nico Collins — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Samaje Perine — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Tahj Brooks — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Tanner Hudson — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Tee Higgins — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Woody Marks — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Xavier Hutchinson — Anytime TD [CIN@HOU] Baker Mayfield — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Blake Whiteheart — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Bucky Irving — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Cade Otton — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Chris Godwin — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Emeka Egbuka — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Harold Fannin Jr. — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Isaiah Bond — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Jalen McMillan — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Jerry Jeudy — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Kameron Johnson — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Ko Kieft — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Malachi Corley — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Payne Durham — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Quinshon Judkins — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Raheim Sanders — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Sean Tucker — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Tez Johnson — Anytime TD [CLE@TB] Amon-Ra St. Brown — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Brock Wright — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Dalton Kincaid — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Dawson Knox — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Isaac TeSlaa — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Jackson Hawes — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Jackson Meeks — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Jacob Saylors — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Jahmyr Gibbs — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] James Cook — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Jameson Williams — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Jared Goff — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Josh Allen — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Joshua Palmer — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Keleki Latu — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Keon Coleman — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Khalil Shakir — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Ray Davis — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Sam LaPorta — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Sione Vaki — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Tom Kennedy — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Ty Johnson — Anytime TD [DET@BUF] Adonai Mitchell — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Andrew Beck — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Arian Smith — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Bo Melton — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Braelon Allen — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Breece Hall — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Chris Brooks — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Christian Watson — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Garrett Wilson — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Isaiah Davis — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Isaiah Williams — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Jayden Reed — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Jelani Woods — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Jeremy Ruckert — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Jordan Love — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Josh Whyle — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Kene Nwangwu — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Mason Taylor — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Matthew Golden — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Tucker Kraft — Anytime TD [GB@NYJ] Alec Pierce — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Ashton Dulin — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Brashard Smith — Anytime TD [IND@KC] DJ Giddens — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Daniel Jones — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Drew Ogletree — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Jalen Royals — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Jonathan Taylor — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Josh Downs — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Laquon Treadwell — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Mo Alie-Cox — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Nikko Remigio — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Noah Gray — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Patrick Mahomes — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Rashee Rice — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Travis Kelce — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Tyler Warren — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Tyquan Thornton — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Xavier Worthy — Anytime TD [IND@KC] Adam Prentice — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Adam Trautman — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Bhayshul Tuten — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Bo Nix — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Brenton Strange — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Brian Thomas Jr — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Courtland Sutton — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Evan Engram — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] J.K. Dobbins — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Jakobi Meyers — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] LeQuint Allen Jr. — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Lil'Jordan Humphrey — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Marvin Mims Jr. — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Nate Adkins — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Parker Washington — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Pat Bryant — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Quintin Morris — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] RJ Harvey — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Travis Hunter — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Trevor Lawrence — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Troy Franklin — Anytime TD [JAX@DEN] Ashton Jeanty — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Derius Davis — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Dylan Laube — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Ian Thomas — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Jack Bech — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Justin Herbert — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Kimani Vidal — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Ladd McConkey — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Michael Mayer — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Omarion Hampton — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Oronde Gadsden II — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Quentin Johnston — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Tre Harris — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Tre Tucker — Anytime TD [LV@LAC] Brayden Willis — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Brock Purdy — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Christian McCaffrey — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] De'Von Achane — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Demarcus Robinson — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] George Kittle — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Greg Dulcich — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Jaylen Wright — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Jordan Watkins — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Kyle Juszczyk — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Luke Farrell — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Malik Washington — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Ollie Gordon II — Anytime TD [MIA@SF] Aaron Jones — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Caleb Williams — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Carson Wentz — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Cole Kmet — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Colston Loveland — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] D'Andre Swift — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Jahdae Walker — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Jordan Addison — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Josh Oliver — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Justin Jefferson — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Kyle Monangai — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Luther Burden III — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Myles Price — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Rome Odunze — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Roschon Johnson — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] T.J. Hockenson — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Tai Felton — Anytime TD [MIN@CHI] Alvin Kamara — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Chris Olave — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Derrick Henry — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Devaughn Vele — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Devontez Walker — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Justice Hill — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Juwan Johnson — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Kendre Miller — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Kevin Austin — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] LaJohntay Wester — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Lamar Jackson — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Mark Andrews — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Rasheen Ali — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Rashod Bateman — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Treyton Welch — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Tyler Shough — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Zay Flowers — Anytime TD [NO@BAL] Blake Corum — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Cam Skattebo — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Chris Manhertz — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Colby Parkinson — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Davante Adams — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Davis Allen — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Devin Singletary — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Jaxson Dart — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Jordan Whittington — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Konata Mumpfield — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Kyren Williams — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Malik Nabers — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Matthew Stafford — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Puka Nacua — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Ronnie Rivers — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Terrance Ferguson — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Theo Johnson — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Thomas Fidone — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Tutu Atwell — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Tyler Higbee — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Tyrone Tracy Jr. — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Xavier Smith — Anytime TD [NYG@LAR] Calvin Ridley — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Cam Ward — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Chimere Dike — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Dallas Goedert — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Darius Cooper — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] David Martin-Robinson — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] DeVonta Smith — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] E.J. Jenkins — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Elic Ayomanor — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Gunnar Helm — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Jalen Hurts — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Julius Chestnut — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Saquon Barkley — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Tank Bigsby — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Tony Pollard — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Tyjae Spears — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Will Shipley — Anytime TD [PHI@TEN] Aaron Rodgers — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Ben Skowronek — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] DK Metcalf — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Darnell Washington — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] DeMario Douglas — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Drake Maye — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Efton Chism III — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Hunter Henry — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Jaylen Warren — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Kyle Williams — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Mack Hollins — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Pat Freiermuth — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Rhamondre Stevenson — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] Roman Wilson — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] TreVeyon Henderson — Anytime TD [PIT@NE] AJ Barner — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Bam Knight — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Brady Russell — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Cooper Kupp — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Drew Lock — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Elijah Arroyo — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Elijah Higgins — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Eric Saubert — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] George Holani — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Jacoby Brissett — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Jalen Brooks — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Marvin Harrison Jr. — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Michael Wilson — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Nick Kallerup — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Rashid Shaheed — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Simi Fehoko — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Tory Horton — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Trey McBride — Anytime TD [SEA@ARI] Ben Sinnott — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Brevyn Spann-Ford — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] CeeDee Lamb — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Colson Yankoff — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Dak Prescott — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] George Pickens — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Hunter Luepke — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Jacory Croskey-Merritt — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Jake Ferguson — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Javonte Williams — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Jayden Daniels — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Jaylin Lane — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] John Bates — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Jonathan Mingo — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] KaVontae Turpin — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Luke McCaffrey — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Luke Schoonmaker — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Ryan Flournoy — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Terry McLaurin — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] Treylon Burks — Anytime TD [WSH@DAL] — MUTED RECEPTIONS — Bijan Robinson — Receptions 4.5 [CAR@ATL] Drake London — Receptions 4.5 [CAR@ATL] Jalen Coker — Receptions 4.5 [CAR@ATL] Tetairoa McMillan — Receptions 4.5 [CAR@ATL] Ja'Marr Chase — Receptions 6.5 [CIN@HOU] Mike Gesicki — Receptions 2.5 [CIN@HOU] Tee Higgins — Receptions 3.5 [CIN@HOU] Cade Otton — Receptions 2.5 [CLE@TB] Chris Godwin — Receptions 3.5 [CLE@TB] Emeka Egbuka — Receptions 3.5 [CLE@TB] Harold Fannin Jr. — Receptions 4.5 [CLE@TB] Jerry Jeudy — Receptions 2.5 [CLE@TB] Amon-Ra St. Brown — Receptions 7.5 [DET@BUF] Dalton Kincaid — Receptions 3.5 [DET@BUF] Dawson Knox — Receptions 1.5 [DET@BUF] Isaac TeSlaa — Receptions 1.5 [DET@BUF] Jahmyr Gibbs — Receptions 4.5 [DET@BUF] James Cook — Receptions 2.5 [DET@BUF] Jameson Williams — Receptions 4.5 [DET@BUF] Joshua Palmer — Receptions 1.5 [DET@BUF] Keon Coleman — Receptions 1.5 [DET@BUF] Khalil Shakir — Receptions 4.5 [DET@BUF] Sam LaPorta — Receptions 4.5 [DET@BUF] Adonai Mitchell — Receptions 2.5 [GB@NYJ] Breece Hall — Receptions 2.5 [GB@NYJ] Chris Brooks — Receptions 1.5 [GB@NYJ] Christian Watson — Receptions 3.5 [GB@NYJ] Garrett Wilson — Receptions 5.5 [GB@NYJ] Jayden Reed — Receptions 3.5 [GB@NYJ] Mason Taylor — Receptions 2.5 [GB@NYJ] Matthew Golden — Receptions 3.5 [GB@NYJ] Tucker Kraft — Receptions 3.5 [GB@NYJ] Alec Pierce — Receptions 2.5 [IND@KC] Jonathan Taylor — Receptions 2.5 [IND@KC] Josh Downs — Receptions 3.5 [IND@KC] Rashee Rice — Receptions 4.5 [IND@KC] Travis Kelce — Receptions 3.5 [IND@KC] Tyler Warren — Receptions 4.5 [IND@KC] Tyquan Thornton — Receptions 1.5 [IND@KC] Xavier Worthy — Receptions 3.5 [IND@KC] Brenton Strange — Receptions 3.5 [JAX@DEN] Brian Thomas Jr — Receptions 2.5 [JAX@DEN] Courtland Sutton — Receptions 3.5 [JAX@DEN] Jakobi Meyers — Receptions 3.5 [JAX@DEN] Parker Washington — Receptions 4.5 [JAX@DEN] Ashton Jeanty — Receptions 4.5 [LV@LAC] Christian McCaffrey — Receptions 4.5 [MIA@SF] De'Von Achane — Receptions 3.5 [MIA@SF] Demarcus Robinson — Receptions 1.5 [MIA@SF] George Kittle — Receptions 3.5 [MIA@SF] Greg Dulcich — Receptions 2.5 [MIA@SF] Malik Washington — Receptions 3.5 [MIA@SF] Aaron Jones — Receptions 2.5 [MIN@CHI] Cole Kmet — Receptions 1.5 [MIN@CHI] Colston Loveland — Receptions 4.5 [MIN@CHI] D'Andre Swift — Receptions 1.5 [MIN@CHI] Jordan Addison — Receptions 2.5 [MIN@CHI] Josh Oliver — Receptions 1.5 [MIN@CHI] Justin Jefferson — Receptions 5.5 [MIN@CHI] Luther Burden III — Receptions 4.5 [MIN@CHI] Rome Odunze — Receptions 2.5 [MIN@CHI] T.J. Hockenson — Receptions 3.5 [MIN@CHI] Chris Olave — Receptions 5.5 [NO@BAL] Devaughn Vele — Receptions 3.5 [NO@BAL] Davante Adams — Receptions 3.5 [NYG@LAR] Malik Nabers — Receptions 5.5 [NYG@LAR] Puka Nacua — Receptions 6.5 [NYG@LAR] Dallas Goedert — Receptions 3.5 [PHI@TEN] DeVonta Smith — Receptions 4.5 [PHI@TEN] Gunnar Helm — Receptions 3.5 [PHI@TEN] Saquon Barkley — Receptions 1.5 [PHI@TEN] Tony Pollard — Receptions 1.5 [PHI@TEN] Tyjae Spears — Receptions 2.5 [PHI@TEN] DK Metcalf — Receptions 3.5 [PIT@NE] Darnell Washington — Receptions 1.5 [PIT@NE] DeMario Douglas — Receptions 3.5 [PIT@NE] Hunter Henry — Receptions 3.5 [PIT@NE] Jaylen Warren — Receptions 2.5 [PIT@NE] Mack Hollins — Receptions 3.5 [PIT@NE] Pat Freiermuth — Receptions 2.5 [PIT@NE] Rhamondre Stevenson — Receptions 2.5 [PIT@NE] Roman Wilson — Receptions 1.5 [PIT@NE] Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Receptions 6.5 [SEA@ARI] Marvin Harrison Jr. — Receptions 3.5 [SEA@ARI] Michael Wilson — Receptions 3.5 [SEA@ARI] Trey McBride — Receptions 6.5 [SEA@ARI] CeeDee Lamb — Receptions 5.5 [WSH@DAL] George Pickens — Receptions 4.5 [WSH@DAL] Hunter Luepke — Receptions 0.5 [WSH@DAL] Jake Ferguson — Receptions 3.5 [WSH@DAL] Javonte Williams — Receptions 2.5 [WSH@DAL] Ryan Flournoy — Receptions 2.5 [WSH@DAL] Terry McLaurin — Receptions 4.5 [WSH@DAL] THE HONEST RANGE Simulated 10,000 times, one unit a pick, 119 picks across 16 games, every pick above. A typical week +7.50u Good week (top 5%) +26.01u Bad week (worst 5%) -11.42u Week loses money 26% of the time Picks in the same game move together. Treating these as independent would put the bad week at -9.43u instead of -11.42u — the difference is what the overlap costs. Even a real edge loses money in plenty of weeks. This range is published so nobody has to take a good or bad week as a verdict. ---------------------------------------------------------- THE PAPER TRAIL · @PaperTrailPicks Every pick, every refusal, hash-committed pre-kickoff. Not betting advice. For entertainment purposes. ==========================================================