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   T H E   P A P E R   T R A I L
   Picks committed before kickoff. Graded in public.
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  Week 4 · 2026 season · built 2026-10-01 CT
  SHA-256 of this file is published before the first
  kickoff. If the file changes, the hash changes.
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  Model and market probabilities read as
  (model N · X% vs mkt Y%). A blank market figure means
  no price was logged for that pick. The badge on each
  pick is that market’s record: Untested under 40,
  Learning 40–100, Calibrated 100+.
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BEST BETS (138)

  ARI @ NYG

    Moneyline NYG   (model 57.1% vs mkt 49.4%)   -107
      [Learning 48/100]  We make this side more likely to
      win than the price implies.

    Cam Skattebo — Rush att UNDER 16.5   (model 14.9 · 59.1% vs mkt 52.4%)   -124
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for the run game.

    Cam Skattebo — Rush yds UNDER 62.5   (model 56.4 · 58.3% vs mkt 50.1%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for the run game.

    Darnell Mooney — Rec yds OVER 20.5   (model 25.4 · 59.8% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Jameis Winston — Completions UNDER 18.5   (model 16.5 · 60.1% vs mkt 52.3%)   -123
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Jameis Winston — Pass att UNDER 30.5   (model 28.5 · 56.1% vs mkt 48.9%)   -108
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Jameis Winston — Rush yds OVER 4.5   (model 5.3 · 56.3% vs mkt 49.2%)   -109
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Jeremiyah Love — Rec yds UNDER 16.5   (model 14.6 · 57.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Jeremiyah Love — Rush att UNDER 15.5   (model 14.3 · 57.7% vs mkt 46.8%)   +100
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for the run game.

    Jeremiyah Love — Rush yds UNDER 63.5   (model 57.2 · 57.8% vs mkt 50.1%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for the run game.

  ATL @ NO

    Alvin Kamara — Rec yds UNDER 16.5   (model 14.5 · 56.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Bijan Robinson — Rush att UNDER 19.5   (model 18.2 · 60.5% vs mkt 49.1%)   -109
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — a soft matchup for the run game.

    Devaughn Vele — Rec yds UNDER 45.5   (model 36.7 · 61.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Jahan Dotson — Rec yds UNDER 18.5   (model 15.9 · 59.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

  DAL @ HOU

    C.J. Stroud — Completions UNDER 21.5   (model 20.2 · 58.1% vs mkt 51.1%)   -120
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    C.J. Stroud — Pass yds UNDER 243.5   (model 227.4 · 60.1% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    CeeDee Lamb — Rec yds OVER 74.5   (model 81.1 · 56.7% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Dak Prescott — Pass att OVER 35.5   (model 37 · 57.2% vs mkt 49.8%)   -120
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    David Montgomery — Rec yds OVER 10.5   (model 12 · 56.1% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    David Montgomery — Rush yds UNDER 45.5   (model 40 · 58.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Javonte Williams — Rush att UNDER 15.5   (model 14.5 · 60.7% vs mkt 49.1%)   -112
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — a soft matchup for the run game.

    Woody Marks — Rush att OVER 9.5   (model 10.1 · 54.1% vs mkt 46.9%)   +100
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

  DEN @ SF

    Moneyline SF   (model 68.0% vs mkt 57.7%)   -148
      [Learning 48/100]  We make this side more likely to
      win than the price implies.

    Bo Nix — Rush yds UNDER 17.5   (model 15.4 · 55.9% vs mkt 49.8%)   -112
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the run game.

    Brock Purdy — Pass att UNDER 31.5   (model 29.5 · 63.9% vs mkt 52.2%)   -123
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Courtland Sutton — Rec yds OVER 37.5   (model 42.3 · 56.2% vs mkt 50.1%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

    Evan Engram — Rec yds OVER 17.5   (model 21.1 · 58.6% vs mkt 49.8%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

    George Kittle — Rec yds UNDER 63.5   (model 57.6 · 57.2% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for receivers.

    J.K. Dobbins — Rush att UNDER 13.5   (model 12.9 · 56.4% vs mkt 49.7%)   -111
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price.

    Kaelon Black — Rush yds OVER 23.5   (model 27.7 · 57.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    RJ Harvey — Rush yds OVER 15.5   (model 19 · 57.1% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

  DET @ CAR

    Bryce Young — Rush att UNDER 2.5   (model 2.3 · 54.7% vs mkt 44.9%)   +108
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Bryce Young — Rush yds UNDER 12.5   (model 10.4 · 56.7% vs mkt 49.3%)   -110
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Chuba Hubbard — Rush att UNDER 16.5   (model 12.7 · 75.0% vs mkt 50.3%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for the run game.

    Chuba Hubbard — Rush yds UNDER 65.5   (model 50.2 · 71.4% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for the run game.

    Darren Waller — Rec yds OVER 23.5   (model 29.9 · 62.5% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Jahmyr Gibbs — Rush att UNDER 19.5   (model 18.4 · 58.5% vs mkt 49.6%)   -111
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Jahmyr Gibbs — Rush yds UNDER 97.5   (model 89 · 56.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Jared Goff — Rush yds OVER 1.5   (model 2.4 · 63.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Sione Vaki — Rush yds UNDER 9.5   (model 7.7 · 60.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

  GB @ TB

    Bucky Irving — Rush yds UNDER 57.5   (model 52.6 · 57.6% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Cade Otton — Rec yds OVER 25.5   (model 30.5 · 58.5% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Jordan Love — Pass att UNDER 34.5   (model 32.4 · 58.5% vs mkt 48.3%)   -123
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price.

    Jordan Love — Rush yds OVER 4.5   (model 5.8 · 57.3% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    MarShawn Lloyd — Rec yds UNDER 5.5   (model 4.6 · 59.4% vs mkt 49.5%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Matthew Golden — Rec yds UNDER 55.5   (model 45.1 · 62.0% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Skyy Moore — Rec yds UNDER 19.5   (model 15.1 · 61.2% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

  IND @ WSH

    Antonio Williams — Rec yds OVER 17.5   (model 24.9 · 64.4% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Daniel Jones — Pass att UNDER 31.5   (model 29.3 · 60.3% vs mkt 51.0%)   -124
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Daniel Jones — Pass yds UNDER 223.5   (model 210.7 · 57.7% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Jacory Croskey-Merritt — Rush att UNDER 13.5   (model 12.1 · 62.6% vs mkt 48.6%)   -107
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Jacory Croskey-Merritt — Rush yds UNDER 54.5   (model 46 · 61.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Josh Downs — Rec yds UNDER 64.5   (model 51.5 · 69.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Marcus Mariota — Pass att UNDER 30.5   (model 28 · 57.5% vs mkt 47.8%)   -105
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the passing game.

    Marcus Mariota — Pass yds UNDER 209.5   (model 194.2 · 57.0% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the passing game.

    Marcus Mariota — Rush yds UNDER 26.5   (model 23.2 · 57.3% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for the run game.

    Tyler Warren — Rec yds UNDER 46.5   (model 40.2 · 60.3% vs mkt 49.7%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Total OVER 47   (model 51.6 · 63.7% vs mkt 50.2%)   -112
      [Learning 47/100]  We land a clear distance off the
      posted total.

  JAX @ CIN

    Moneyline JAX   (model 61.8% vs mkt 43.0%)   +120
      [Learning 48/100]  We make this side more likely to
      win than the price implies.

    Bhayshul Tuten — Rec yds UNDER 10.5   (model 8.4 · 59.1% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Bhayshul Tuten — Rush att UNDER 12.5   (model 9.9 · 70.5% vs mkt 45.6%)   +105
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Bhayshul Tuten — Rush yds UNDER 54.5   (model 41.9 · 68.3% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Brian Thomas Jr — Rec yds OVER 27.5   (model 34.7 · 63.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Chase Brown — Rush att UNDER 16.5   (model 15.4 · 60.5% vs mkt 47.7%)   -103
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Joe Burrow — Pass att UNDER 35.5   (model 33.9 · 57.2% vs mkt 48.2%)   -105
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Joe Burrow — Pass yds UNDER 267.5   (model 249.4 · 59.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Samaje Perine — Rush yds OVER 12.5   (model 16.3 · 58.9% vs mkt 50.2%)   -116
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Trevor Lawrence — Completions UNDER 21.5   (model 21.1 · 54.1% vs mkt 47.9%)   -110
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Trevor Lawrence — Pass yds UNDER 261.5   (model 252.8 · 56.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

  KC @ LV

    Ashton Jeanty — Rush att UNDER 17.5   (model 16.1 · 59.6% vs mkt 52.6%)   -125
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price.

    Kenneth Walker III — Rush att OVER 18.5   (model 20.2 · 69.3% vs mkt 48.4%)   -106
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Kenneth Walker III — Rush yds OVER 86.5   (model 103.1 · 63.9% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Kirk Cousins — Pass yds OVER 225.5   (model 235 · 57.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Kirk Cousins — Rush yds UNDER 0.5   (model 0.1 · 99.1% vs mkt 52.6%)   -128
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Mike Washington Jr. — Rush yds OVER 16.5   (model 21.7 · 60.8% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Patrick Mahomes — Completions UNDER 20.5   (model 20.1 · 52.5% vs mkt 46.4%)   +102
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Patrick Mahomes — Rush yds OVER 15.5   (model 19.8 · 59.9% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Xavier Worthy — Rec yds UNDER 33.5   (model 30.1 · 56.3% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price.

  LAC @ SEA

    Moneyline SEA   (model 84.0% vs mkt 75.2%)   -330
      [Learning 48/100]  We make this side more likely to
      win than the price implies.

    Jadarian Price — Rec yds UNDER 9.5   (model 7.6 · 66.2% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Justin Herbert — Completions OVER 18.5   (model 20.1 · 59.8% vs mkt 52.9%)   -129
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Justin Herbert — Pass att OVER 29.5   (model 31.6 · 59.6% vs mkt 52.1%)   -123
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Justin Herbert — Pass yds OVER 197.5   (model 220.6 · 62.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Rashid Shaheed — Rec yds UNDER 21.5   (model 17.8 · 56.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Sam Darnold — Completions UNDER 21.5   (model 19.3 · 62.6% vs mkt 53.0%)   -132
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Sam Darnold — Pass att UNDER 30.5   (model 27.8 · 60.8% vs mkt 52.4%)   -124
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Sam Darnold — Pass yds UNDER 230.5   (model 216.5 · 56.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game.

  LAR @ PHI

    DeVonta Smith — Rec yds UNDER 68.5   (model 61.6 · 57.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — he is carrying a questionable tag and the
      game script points his way.

    Dontayvion Wicks — Rec yds OVER 40.5   (model 48.8 · 64.9% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Johnny Mundt — Rec yds UNDER 7.5   (model 5.8 · 65.9% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Kyren Williams — Rush yds OVER 57.5   (model 66.3 · 64.2% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Makai Lemon — Rec yds UNDER 26.5   (model 20.1 · 64.7% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Saquon Barkley — Rush att UNDER 17.5   (model 15.7 · 62.3% vs mkt 49.0%)   -108
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Saquon Barkley — Rush yds UNDER 78.5   (model 68.4 · 60.9% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

  MIA @ MIN

    Aaron Jones — Rec yds UNDER 18.5   (model 15.6 · 58.9% vs mkt 49.3%)   -109
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Aaron Jones — Rush att UNDER 17.5   (model 16.2 · 59.0% vs mkt 52.8%)   -126
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Aaron Jones — Rush yds UNDER 67.5   (model 63.1 · 56.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Greg Dulcich — Rec yds OVER 26.5   (model 29.8 · 56.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Jaylen Wright — Rush att UNDER 6.5   (model 5.5 · 56.6% vs mkt 45.9%)   +104
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Malik Willis — Completions OVER 16.5   (model 17.3 · 57.6% vs mkt 46.6%)   -104
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Malik Willis — Pass att OVER 28.5   (model 30.1 · 59.3% vs mkt 50.1%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Malik Willis — Pass yds OVER 163.5   (model 195.2 · 72.9% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Ollie Gordon II — Rush yds UNDER 28.5   (model 19.1 · 71.1% vs mkt 50.2%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for the run game.

  NE @ BUF

    Drake Maye — Pass yds OVER 225.5   (model 240.8 · 61.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way and a tough
      matchup for the passing game.

    Drake Maye — Rush yds UNDER 26.5   (model 23.4 · 57.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the run game.

    James Cook — Rush yds OVER 87.5   (model 96.6 · 58.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Josh Allen — Pass yds UNDER 236.5   (model 219.8 · 57.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price.

    Keon Coleman — Rec yds OVER 12.5   (model 17.3 · 59.9% vs mkt 49.1%)   -112
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and he is carrying a questionable tag.

  NYJ @ CHI

    Moneyline CHI   (model 78.4% vs mkt 64.0%)   -190
      [Learning 48/100]  We make this side more likely to
      win than the price implies.

    Braelon Allen — Rec yds UNDER 9.5   (model 6.8 · 66.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Cole Kmet — Rec yds OVER 9.5   (model 11.7 · 57.3% vs mkt 50.7%)   -117
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Geno Smith — Completions OVER 21.5   (model 24.9 · 71.4% vs mkt 47.1%)   -105
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the passing game.

    Geno Smith — Pass att OVER 33.5   (model 35.7 · 59.7% vs mkt 47.8%)   -105
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    Geno Smith — Pass yds OVER 224.5   (model 256.6 · 72.3% vs mkt 50.1%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the passing game.

    Isaiah Davis — Rush yds UNDER 21.5   (model 14.9 · 64.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Isaiah Williams — Rec yds UNDER 22.5   (model 18.9 · 59.3% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Kalif Raymond — Rec yds OVER 31.5   (model 44.5 · 71.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Kyle Monangai — Rec yds OVER 5.5   (model 6.8 · 56.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Rome Odunze — Rec yds OVER 27.5   (model 33.5 · 58.4% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

  PIT @ CLE

    Darnell Washington — Rec yds OVER 15.5   (model 18.5 · 56.7% vs mkt 49.4%)   -112
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Denzel Boston — Rec yds OVER 33.5   (model 47 · 71.9% vs mkt 50.2%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Deshaun Watson — Completions OVER 18.5   (model 19.1 · 54.9% vs mkt 46.3%)   +102
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Deshaun Watson — Pass yds OVER 181.5   (model 192.9 · 58.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Germie Bernard — Rec yds OVER 9.5   (model 11.9 · 57.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Jaylen Warren — Rush att UNDER 15.5   (model 14.3 · 62.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Jerry Jeudy — Rec yds OVER 13.5   (model 18.2 · 60.4% vs mkt 50.2%)   -116
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    KC Concepcion — Rec yds UNDER 35.5   (model 30.7 · 59.3% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Quinshon Judkins — Rush att UNDER 16.5   (model 14.9 · 61.8% vs mkt 49.3%)   -110
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the run game.

    Quinshon Judkins — Rush yds UNDER 55.5   (model 49.7 · 57.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the run game.

    Raheim Sanders — Rush yds OVER 5.5   (model 8.2 · 61.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a tough matchup for the run game.

  TEN @ BAL

    Elic Ayomanor — Rec yds OVER 20.5   (model 25.9 · 60.8% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Lamar Jackson — Completions UNDER 18.5   (model 16 · 72.4% vs mkt 51.7%)   -124
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Lamar Jackson — Pass att UNDER 27.5   (model 24.1 · 68.9% vs mkt 50.8%)   -128
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Lamar Jackson — Pass yds UNDER 225.5   (model 204.6 · 64.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Lamar Jackson — Rush att UNDER 6.5   (model 5.7 · 58.6% vs mkt 46.8%)   +100
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and he is carrying a
      questionable tag.

    Mark Andrews — Rec yds UNDER 40.5   (model 32.2 · 65.6% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Rashod Bateman — Rec yds UNDER 32.5   (model 25.7 · 61.0% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Tony Pollard — Rush att UNDER 13.5   (model 12.4 · 59.2% vs mkt 52.9%)   -127
      [Calibrated 1587]  A real disagreement with the
      price — he is carrying a questionable tag.

WORTH A LOOK (96)

  ARI @ NYG

    Cam Skattebo — Rec yds OVER 17.5   (model 19.6 · 55.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Jameis Winston — Pass yds UNDER 208.5   (model 189 · 55.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Kendrick Bourne — Rec yds OVER 19.5   (model 23.3 · 55.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Malik Nabers — Rec yds UNDER 52.5   (model 47.1 · 54.3% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Michael Wilson — Rec yds UNDER 57.5   (model 53 · 54.0% vs mkt 50.1%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for receivers.

    Trey McBride — Rec yds UNDER 67.5   (model 64.3 · 54.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for receivers.

  ATL @ NO

    Brian Robinson Jr. — Rush yds OVER 31.5   (model 35 · 56.1% vs mkt 50.2%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for the run game.

    Chris Olave — Rec yds UNDER 85.5   (model 80.3 · 55.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for receivers.

    Juwan Johnson — Rec yds OVER 40.5   (model 43.4 · 55.3% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Kyle Pitts — Rec yds OVER 28.5   (model 32.8 · 55.6% vs mkt 49.8%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Tyler Shough — Pass yds UNDER 256.5   (model 245.5 · 54.4% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Total UNDER 48.5   (model 45.8 · 58.2% vs mkt 50.8%)   -115
      [Learning 47/100]  We land just off the posted total
      — a lean, not a strong call.

  DAL @ HOU

    Moneyline HOU   (model 61.2% vs mkt 56.6%)   -141
      [Learning 48/100]  A small lean on the price, no
      more than that.

    C.J. Stroud — Pass att UNDER 31.5   (model 30.8 · 52.6% vs mkt 49.0%)   -111
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Dak Prescott — Completions OVER 24.5   (model 25.2 · 54.7% vs mkt 49.3%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    Dak Prescott — Pass yds OVER 265.5   (model 276 · 55.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    Dak Prescott — Rush att UNDER 2.5   (model 2.7 · 47.0% vs mkt 41.0%)   +126
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for the run game.

    Dak Prescott — Rush yds OVER 9.5   (model 10.6 · 54.6% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for the run game.

    Jake Ferguson — Rec yds OVER 24.5   (model 27.3 · 55.4% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Javonte Williams — Rec yds UNDER 13.5   (model 12.2 · 55.5% vs mkt 50.4%)   -117
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Jaylin Noel — Rec yds OVER 11.5   (model 13.4 · 54.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Nico Collins — Rec yds UNDER 71.5   (model 68.2 · 54.3% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — he is carrying a questionable tag and with
      almost nothing from this season on his record, so
      this leans hard on the posted number.

    Ryan Flournoy — Rec yds UNDER 33.5   (model 30.3 · 54.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Total OVER 47.5   (model 50.1 · 57.9% vs mkt 51.0%)   -115
      [Learning 47/100]  We land just off the posted total
      — a lean, not a strong call.

  DEN @ SF

    Bo Nix — Rush att UNDER 4.5   (model 4.2 · 53.7% vs mkt 48.2%)   -105
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for the run game.

    Brock Purdy — Completions UNDER 20.5   (model 19.9 · 55.7% vs mkt 50.9%)   -117
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Brock Purdy — Rush yds OVER 17.5   (model 19.7 · 55.6% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for the run game.

    Pat Bryant — Rec yds OVER 21.5   (model 24.2 · 55.7% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

  DET @ CAR

    AJ Dillon — Rush yds UNDER 13.5   (model 12.3 · 53.7% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for the run game.

    Chuba Hubbard — Rec yds UNDER 18.5   (model 16.8 · 55.1% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a tough
      matchup for receivers.

    Jared Goff — Completions UNDER 23.5   (model 23.1 · 53.0% vs mkt 49.2%)   -109
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Tetairoa McMillan — Rec yds UNDER 69.5   (model 65.7 · 54.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Total OVER 50.5   (model 53.6 · 59.4% vs mkt 49.4%)   -108
      [Learning 47/100]  We land just off the posted total
      — a lean, not a strong call.

  GB @ TB

    Bucky Irving — Rec yds OVER 13.5   (model 15.5 · 54.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      he is carrying a questionable tag and the game
      script points his way.

    Bucky Irving — Rush att UNDER 15.5   (model 14 · 61.2% vs mkt 55.2%)   -155
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Chris Godwin — Rec yds OVER 26.5   (model 29.3 · 54.5% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      he is carrying a questionable tag and the game
      script points his way.

    Emeka Egbuka — Rec yds OVER 38.5   (model 42.5 · 54.8% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Jordan Love — Completions UNDER 21.5   (model 19.9 · 60.7% vs mkt 55.8%)   -150
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    Jordan Love — Pass yds UNDER 236.5   (model 227.9 · 54.1% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    Total OVER 39.5   (model 42.8 · 59.9% vs mkt 51.0%)   -115
      [Learning 47/100]  We land just off the posted total
      — a lean, not a strong call.

  IND @ WSH

    Daniel Jones — Completions UNDER 20.5   (model 19.3 · 58.6% vs mkt 52.7%)   -132
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Daniel Jones — Rush yds UNDER 11.5   (model 10.1 · 54.5% vs mkt 50.7%)   -120
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for the run game.

    Jonathan Taylor — Rush att OVER 19.5   (model 20.1 · 55.1% vs mkt 50.5%)   -125
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the run game.

    Keenan Allen — Rec yds UNDER 33.5   (model 30.5 · 54.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for receivers.

    Laquon Treadwell — Rec yds UNDER 13.5   (model 11.4 · 55.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Marcus Mariota — Completions UNDER 19.5   (model 17.7 · 58.6% vs mkt 53.9%)   -135
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the passing game.

    Marcus Mariota — Rush att UNDER 4.5   (model 4.1 · 54.6% vs mkt 48.8%)   -137
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for the run game.

  JAX @ CIN

    Dohnte Meyers — Rec yds UNDER 17.5   (model 15.8 · 55.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Joe Burrow — Completions UNDER 24.5   (model 23.4 · 56.7% vs mkt 52.6%)   -125
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Mike Gesicki — Rec yds UNDER 28.5   (model 25.7 · 54.8% vs mkt 50.2%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a soft matchup for receivers.

    Parker Washington — Rec yds UNDER 72.5   (model 67.2 · 55.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Samaje Perine — Rec yds UNDER 9.5   (model 8.7 · 54.1% vs mkt 50.2%)   -116
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    Trevor Lawrence — Pass att UNDER 34.5   (model 33.7 · 54.4% vs mkt 50.0%)   -113
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

  KC @ LV

    Moneyline KC   (model 70.8% vs mkt 66.9%)   -220
      [Learning 48/100]  A small lean on the price, no
      more than that.

    Ashton Jeanty — Rush yds UNDER 56.5   (model 52.8 · 54.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Brock Bowers — Rec yds UNDER 76.5   (model 72.3 · 55.1% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and with almost
      nothing from this season on his record, so this
      leans hard on the posted number.

    Kirk Cousins — Completions OVER 21.5   (model 22.2 · 56.7% vs mkt 53.2%)   -128
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way.

    Michael Mayer — Rec yds OVER 21.5   (model 24.2 · 55.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Tre Tucker — Rec yds OVER 36.5   (model 40.4 · 55.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Total UNDER 47.5   (model 43.8 · 61.1% vs mkt 49.5%)   -110
      [Learning 47/100]  We land just off the posted total
      — a lean, not a strong call.

  LAC @ SEA

    AJ Barner — Rec yds UNDER 29.5   (model 26.7 · 55.3% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for receivers.

    Omarion Hampton — Rush yds OVER 45.5   (model 48.1 · 53.8% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for the run game.

    Oronde Gadsden II — Rec yds OVER 24.5   (model 27.7 · 54.3% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Tre Harris — Rec yds UNDER 33.5   (model 31.4 · 53.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

  LAR @ PHI

    Moneyline LAR   (model 62.4% vs mkt 58.8%)   -155
      [Learning 48/100]  A small lean on the price, no
      more than that.

    Blake Corum — Rush yds OVER 40.5   (model 44.6 · 55.9% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Jalen Hurts — Completions OVER 19.5   (model 19.6 · 51.1% vs mkt 46.4%)   +102
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way.

    Jalen Hurts — Pass yds OVER 196.5   (model 206.4 · 56.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way.

    Kyren Williams — Rec yds OVER 13.5   (model 15.5 · 55.1% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Kyren Williams — Rush att OVER 13.5   (model 13.9 · 53.7% vs mkt 49.3%)   -110
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the run game.

    Matthew Stafford — Completions OVER 21.5   (model 21.8 · 52.3% vs mkt 47.4%)   -102
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Matthew Stafford — Pass yds OVER 251.5   (model 262.8 · 55.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Tank Bigsby — Rush yds OVER 10.5   (model 12.4 · 54.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number.

  MIA @ MIN

    Jaylen Wright — Rec yds UNDER 4.5   (model 3.9 · 54.4% vs mkt 49.8%)   -112
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and he is carrying a
      questionable tag.

    Malik Washington — Rec yds UNDER 35.5   (model 32.4 · 55.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Malik Willis — Rush att UNDER 6.5   (model 5.6 · 60.2% vs mkt 55.3%)   -139
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number.

  NE @ BUF

    DeMario Douglas — Rec yds UNDER 28.5   (model 25.8 · 54.7% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

    Drake Maye — Completions OVER 19.5   (model 20.2 · 55.4% vs mkt 51.1%)   -120
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a tough
      matchup for the passing game.

    Drake Maye — Rush att UNDER 5.5   (model 5 · 55.9% vs mkt 50.9%)   -117
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for the run game.

    Hunter Henry — Rec yds OVER 30.5   (model 34.2 · 56.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

    James Cook — Rush att OVER 17.5   (model 18.5 · 56.4% vs mkt 52.6%)   -125
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way.

    Josh Allen — Completions UNDER 20.5   (model 18.6 · 61.2% vs mkt 56.6%)   -165
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Josh Allen — Pass att UNDER 29.5   (model 27 · 60.9% vs mkt 55.5%)   -165
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Rhamondre Stevenson — Rush att UNDER 8.5   (model 7.9 · 55.8% vs mkt 51.3%)   -135
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a tough matchup for the run game.

    TreVeyon Henderson — Rec yds OVER 6.5   (model 7.5 · 54.9% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

  NYJ @ CHI

    D'Andre Swift — Rush att UNDER 16.5   (model 15.8 · 57.5% vs mkt 52.4%)   -124
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a tough
      matchup for the run game.

    Kyle Monangai — Rush att OVER 9.5   (model 9.7 · 51.8% vs mkt 46.0%)   +104
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a tough
      matchup for the run game.

    Luther Burden III — Rec yds UNDER 46.5   (model 43.4 · 53.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    Total OVER 42.5   (model 45.2 · 58.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -110
      [Learning 47/100]  We land just off the posted total
      — a lean, not a strong call.

  PIT @ CLE

    Moneyline PIT   (model 61.6% vs mkt 57.4%)   -145
      [Learning 48/100]  A small lean on the price, no
      more than that.

    Aaron Rodgers — Pass att UNDER 34.5   (model 33.9 · 53.1% vs mkt 47.4%)   -102
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Harold Fannin Jr. — Rec yds OVER 39.5   (model 41.5 · 53.6% vs mkt 50.1%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Roman Wilson — Rec yds UNDER 22.5   (model 20.1 · 54.9% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a soft matchup for receivers.

  TEN @ BAL

    Cam Ward — Completions OVER 19.5   (model 20.1 · 53.5% vs mkt 49.9%)   -124
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way.

    Cam Ward — Pass yds OVER 183.5   (model 190.8 · 54.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way.

    Cam Ward — Rush yds UNDER 9.5   (model 8.4 · 54.8% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 1587]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

Passed on 784 other markets the model looked at — 167 thin
edge, 36 team change, 376 muted TD, 154 muted receptions,
15 line out of range, 31 no projection, 5 under 3 games.

==========================================================
REFUSED (784) — looked at, not picked

  Nothing below is a bet. These are the markets the
  model saw and declined, with the reason. They are
  inside the hash so the list cannot be trimmed after
  the fact.


  — TEAM CHANGE —
  Braxton Berrios — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Devin Duvernay — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Najee Harris — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Najee Harris — Rush yds 23.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Emari Demercado — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Tyler Goodson — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  John Metchie III — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Tyler Conklin — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Kaleb Johnson — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Kaleb Johnson — Rush att 8.5   [GB@TB]
  Kaleb Johnson — Rush yds 29.5   [GB@TB]
  Chig Okonkwo — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Darius Slayton — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Hayden Rucci — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Marquez Valdes-Scantling — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Elijah Moore — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Zach Ertz — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Zach Ertz — Rec yds 9.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Zach Ertz — Receptions 1.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Jalen Tolbert — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Jauan Jennings — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Kyler Murray — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Kyler Murray — Completions 19.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Kyler Murray — Pass att 28.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Kyler Murray — Pass yds 204.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Kyler Murray — Rush att 4.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Kyler Murray — Rush yds 19.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Greg Dortch — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Jaleel McLaughlin — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Michael Pittman Jr. — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Michael Pittman Jr. — Rec yds 32.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Michael Pittman Jr. — Receptions 3.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Rico Dowdle — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Travis Homer — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Travis Homer — Rush yds 7.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Kylen Granson — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]

  — UNDER 3 GAMES —
  Jalon Daniels — Completions 16.5   [GB@TB]
  Jalon Daniels — Pass att 27.5   [GB@TB]
  Jalon Daniels — Pass yds 165.5   [GB@TB]
  Jalon Daniels — Rush att 7.5   [GB@TB]
  Jalon Daniels — Rush yds 36.5   [GB@TB]

  — NO PROJECTION —
  Barion Brown — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Nick Muse — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Oscar Delp — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Zachariah Branch — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Anthony Tyus III — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Feleipe Franks — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Tay Martin — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Bauer Sharp — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  J. Michael Sturdivant — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Jalon Daniels — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  CJ Williams — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Jack Endries — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Tanner Koziol — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Ben VanSumeren — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Brenen Thompson — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Montorie Foster Jr. — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Dean Connors — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Max Klare — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Caleb Douglas — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Demond Claiborne — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Justin Joly — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Eli Raridon — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Tanner Arkin — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Jamaal Pritchett — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Malik McClain — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Carsen Ryan — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Eli Heidenreich — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Kaden Wetjen — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Lew Nichols — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Riley Nowakowski — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Nicholas Singleton — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]

  — LINE OUT OF RANGE —
  Jonnu Smith — Rec yds 7.5   [GB@TB]
  Laquon Treadwell — Receptions 1.5   [IND@WSH]
  Travis Hunter — Rec yds 6.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Emmett Johnson — Rec yds 6.5   [KC@LV]
  Matthew Stafford — Rush yds 0.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Jaylen Wright — Receptions 1.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Braelon Allen — Rush att 14.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Braelon Allen — Rush yds 54.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Tyson Bagent — Completions 19.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Tyson Bagent — Pass att 29.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Tyson Bagent — Pass yds 201.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Tyson Bagent — Rush yds 14.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Aaron Rodgers — Rush yds 0.5   [PIT@CLE]
  KC Concepcion — Rush yds 0.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Calvin Ridley — Rec yds 6.5   [TEN@BAL]

  — THIN EDGE —
  Total 44.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Isaiah Likely — Rec yds 40.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Jacoby Brissett — Completions 23.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Jacoby Brissett — Pass att 34.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Jacoby Brissett — Pass yds 229.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Jacoby Brissett — Rush yds 7.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Malachi Fields — Rec yds 22.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Marvin Harrison Jr. — Rec yds 29.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Tyler Allgeier — Rush yds 18.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Moneyline   [ATL@NO]
  Alvin Kamara — Rush att 11.5   [ATL@NO]
  Alvin Kamara — Rush yds 38.5   [ATL@NO]
  Austin Hooper — Rec yds 10.5   [ATL@NO]
  Bijan Robinson — Rec yds 39.5   [ATL@NO]
  Bijan Robinson — Rush yds 87.5   [ATL@NO]
  Drake London — Rec yds 78.5   [ATL@NO]
  Kendre Miller — Rush yds 23.5   [ATL@NO]
  Michael Penix Jr. — Completions 20.5   [ATL@NO]
  Michael Penix Jr. — Pass att 30.5   [ATL@NO]
  Michael Penix Jr. — Pass yds 224.5   [ATL@NO]
  Michael Penix Jr. — Rush yds 5.5   [ATL@NO]
  Noah Fant — Rec yds 18.5   [ATL@NO]
  Tyler Shough — Completions 23.5   [ATL@NO]
  Tyler Shough — Pass att 34.5   [ATL@NO]
  Tyler Shough — Rush yds 16.5   [ATL@NO]
  C.J. Stroud — Rush att 3.5   [DAL@HOU]
  C.J. Stroud — Rush yds 11.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Dalton Schultz — Rec yds 44.5   [DAL@HOU]
  David Montgomery — Rush att 11.5   [DAL@HOU]
  George Pickens — Rec yds 67.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Javonte Williams — Rush yds 56.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Kayshon Boutte — Rec yds 23.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Woody Marks — Rec yds 10.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Woody Marks — Rush yds 35.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Xavier Hutchinson — Rec yds 27.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Total 46.5   [DEN@SF]
  Bo Nix — Completions 21.5   [DEN@SF]
  Bo Nix — Pass att 34.5   [DEN@SF]
  Bo Nix — Pass yds 221.5   [DEN@SF]
  Brock Purdy — Pass yds 229.5   [DEN@SF]
  Brock Purdy — Rush att 4.5   [DEN@SF]
  Christian McCaffrey — Rec yds 38.5   [DEN@SF]
  Christian McCaffrey — Rush att 15.5   [DEN@SF]
  Christian McCaffrey — Rush yds 63.5   [DEN@SF]
  J.K. Dobbins — Rush yds 59.5   [DEN@SF]
  Jaylen Waddle — Rec yds 55.5   [DEN@SF]
  RJ Harvey — Rec yds 21.5   [DEN@SF]
  Moneyline   [DET@CAR]
  Amon-Ra St. Brown — Rec yds 75.5   [DET@CAR]
  Bryce Young — Completions 21.5   [DET@CAR]
  Bryce Young — Pass att 35.5   [DET@CAR]
  Bryce Young — Pass yds 246.5   [DET@CAR]
  Isaac TeSlaa — Rec yds 17.5   [DET@CAR]
  Jahmyr Gibbs — Rec yds 35.5   [DET@CAR]
  Jameson Williams — Rec yds 51.5   [DET@CAR]
  Jared Goff — Pass att 34.5   [DET@CAR]
  Jared Goff — Pass yds 260.5   [DET@CAR]
  Sam LaPorta — Rec yds 47.5   [DET@CAR]
  Moneyline   [GB@TB]
  Christian Watson — Rec yds 66.5   [GB@TB]
  MarShawn Lloyd — Rush yds 22.5   [GB@TB]
  Tucker Kraft — Rec yds 41.5   [GB@TB]
  Moneyline   [IND@WSH]
  Daniel Jones — Rush att 3.5   [IND@WSH]
  Jonathan Taylor — Rec yds 19.5   [IND@WSH]
  Jonathan Taylor — Rush yds 90.5   [IND@WSH]
  Seth McGowan — Rush yds 5.5   [IND@WSH]
  Stefon Diggs — Rec yds 43.5   [IND@WSH]
  Terry McLaurin — Rec yds 52.5   [IND@WSH]
  Total 51.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Brenton Strange — Rec yds 33.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Chase Brown — Rec yds 18.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Chase Brown — Rush yds 64.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Chris Rodriguez Jr. — Rush yds 20.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Drew Sample — Rec yds 6.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Ja'Marr Chase — Rec yds 78.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Jakobi Meyers — Rec yds 40.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Joe Burrow — Rush yds 8.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Tee Higgins — Rec yds 60.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Trevor Lawrence — Rush yds 13.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Ashton Jeanty — Rec yds 18.5   [KC@LV]
  Emmett Johnson — Rush yds 17.5   [KC@LV]
  Jalen Nailor — Rec yds 19.5   [KC@LV]
  Kenneth Walker III — Rec yds 19.5   [KC@LV]
  Kirk Cousins — Pass att 33.5   [KC@LV]
  Noah Gray — Rec yds 8.5   [KC@LV]
  Patrick Mahomes — Pass att 32.5   [KC@LV]
  Patrick Mahomes — Pass yds 235.5   [KC@LV]
  Rashee Rice — Rec yds 54.5   [KC@LV]
  Travis Kelce — Rec yds 47.5   [KC@LV]
  Tyquan Thornton — Rec yds 20.5   [KC@LV]
  Total 42.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Cooper Kupp — Rec yds 24.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Emanuel Wilson — Rush yds 38.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Jadarian Price — Rush yds 40.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Rec yds 90.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Justin Herbert — Rush yds 21.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Ladd McConkey — Rec yds 45.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Omarion Hampton — Rush att 13.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Quentin Johnston — Rec yds 35.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Sam Darnold — Rush yds 4.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Total 44.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Blake Corum — Rush att 9.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Davante Adams — Rec yds 65.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Jalen Hurts — Pass att 29.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Jalen Hurts — Rush att 6.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Jalen Hurts — Rush yds 24.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Matthew Stafford — Pass att 34.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Puka Nacua — Rec yds 76.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Saquon Barkley — Rec yds 11.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Moneyline   [MIA@MIN]
  Total 38.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Chris Bell — Rec yds 32.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Jaylen Wright — Rush yds 19.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Malik Washington — Rush yds 4.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Malik Willis — Rush yds 27.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Moneyline   [NE@BUF]
  Total 48.5   [NE@BUF]
  DJ Moore — Rec yds 46.5   [NE@BUF]
  Dalton Kincaid — Rec yds 50.5   [NE@BUF]
  Drake Maye — Pass att 30.5   [NE@BUF]
  James Cook — Rec yds 7.5   [NE@BUF]
  Josh Allen — Rush att 7.5   [NE@BUF]
  Josh Allen — Rush yds 31.5   [NE@BUF]
  Khalil Shakir — Rec yds 37.5   [NE@BUF]
  Mack Hollins — Rec yds 43.5   [NE@BUF]
  Rhamondre Stevenson — Rec yds 18.5   [NE@BUF]
  Rhamondre Stevenson — Rush yds 31.5   [NE@BUF]
  Romeo Doubs — Rec yds 41.5   [NE@BUF]
  TreVeyon Henderson — Rush att 10.5   [NE@BUF]
  TreVeyon Henderson — Rush yds 39.5   [NE@BUF]
  Ty Johnson — Rec yds 12.5   [NE@BUF]
  Colston Loveland — Rec yds 31.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  D'Andre Swift — Rec yds 14.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  D'Andre Swift — Rush yds 66.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Garrett Wilson — Rec yds 75.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Geno Smith — Rush yds 10.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Isaiah Davis — Rec yds 9.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Kenyon Sadiq — Rec yds 43.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Kyle Monangai — Rush yds 38.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Total 38.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Aaron Rodgers — Completions 21.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Aaron Rodgers — Pass yds 212.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Blake Whiteheart — Rec yds 3.5   [PIT@CLE]
  DK Metcalf — Rec yds 40.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Deshaun Watson — Pass att 28.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Deshaun Watson — Rush att 5.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Deshaun Watson — Rush yds 29.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Jaylen Warren — Rec yds 22.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Jaylen Warren — Rush yds 65.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Pat Freiermuth — Rec yds 29.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Quinshon Judkins — Rec yds 12.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Raheim Sanders — Rec yds 12.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Moneyline   [TEN@BAL]
  Total 43.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Cam Ward — Pass att 33.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Carnell Tate — Rec yds 42.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Derrick Henry — Rec yds 7.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Derrick Henry — Rush att 19.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Derrick Henry — Rush yds 96.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Gunnar Helm — Rec yds 17.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Lamar Jackson — Rush yds 30.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Tony Pollard — Rec yds 9.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Tony Pollard — Rush yds 47.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Tyjae Spears — Rush yds 15.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Wan'Dale Robinson — Rec yds 37.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Zay Flowers — Rec yds 68.5   [TEN@BAL]

  — MUTED TD —
  Bam Knight — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Cam Skattebo — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Chris Manhertz — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Darnell Mooney — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Devin Singletary — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Elijah Higgins — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Hunter Long — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Isaiah Likely — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Jacoby Brissett — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Jalen Brooks — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Jameis Winston — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Jeremiyah Love — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Kendrick Bourne — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Malachi Fields — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Malik Nabers — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Marvin Harrison Jr. — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Michael Wilson — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Patrick Ricard — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Simi Fehoko — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Theo Johnson — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Thomas Fidone — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Trey McBride — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Tyler Allgeier — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Tyrone Tracy Jr. — Anytime TD   [ARI@NYG]
  Alvin Kamara — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Austin Hooper — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Bijan Robinson — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Brian Robinson Jr. — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Bryce Lance — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  CJ Donaldson — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Charlie Woerner — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Chris Blair — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Chris Olave — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Devaughn Vele — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Drake London — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Jahan Dotson — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Juwan Johnson — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Kendre Miller — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Kyle Pitts — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Michael Penix Jr. — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Noah Fant — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Olamide Zaccheaus — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Treyton Welch — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Tyler Shough — Anytime TD   [ATL@NO]
  Brevyn Spann-Ford — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  British Brooks — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  C.J. Stroud — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Cade Stover — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  CeeDee Lamb — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Dak Prescott — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Dalton Schultz — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  David Montgomery — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Foster Moreau — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  George Pickens — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Hunter Luepke — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Jake Ferguson — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Jared Wayne — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Javonte Williams — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Jaylin Noel — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Jonathan Mingo — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  KaVontae Turpin — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Kayshon Boutte — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Luke Schoonmaker — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Marlin Klein — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Nico Collins — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Ryan Flournoy — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Woody Marks — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Xavier Hutchinson — Anytime TD   [DAL@HOU]
  Adam Prentice — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Adam Trautman — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Bo Nix — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Brayden Willis — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Brock Purdy — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Christian McCaffrey — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Courtland Sutton — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Deebo Samuel — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Evan Engram — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  George Kittle — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  J.K. Dobbins — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Jacob Cowing — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Jaylen Waddle — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Jordan Watkins — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Kaelon Black — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  KhaDarel Hodge — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Kyle Juszczyk — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Lil'Jordan Humphrey — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Luke Farrell — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Marvin Mims Jr. — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Mike Evans — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Nate Adkins — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Pat Bryant — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  RJ Harvey — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Troy Franklin — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  Tyler Badie — Anytime TD   [DEN@SF]
  AJ Dillon — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Amon-Ra St. Brown — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Brock Wright — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Bryce Young — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Brycen Tremayne — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Chuba Hubbard — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Darren Waller — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  David Moore — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Isaac TeSlaa — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Ja'Tavion Sanders — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Jackson Meeks — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Jacob Saylors — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Jahmyr Gibbs — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Jalen Coker — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Jameson Williams — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Jared Goff — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Mitchell Evans — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Sam LaPorta — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Sione Vaki — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Tetairoa McMillan — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Tom Kennedy — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Tommy Tremble — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Xavier Legette — Anytime TD   [DET@CAR]
  Bo Melton — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Bucky Irving — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Cade Otton — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Chris Brooks — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Chris Godwin — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Christian Watson — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Emeka Egbuka — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Jonnu Smith — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Jordan Love — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Josh Whyle — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Kameron Johnson — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Kenny Gainwell — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Ko Kieft — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  MarShawn Lloyd — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Mark Redman — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Matthew Golden — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Payne Durham — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Sean Tucker — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Skyy Moore — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Ted Hurst III — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Tez Johnson — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Tucker Kraft — Anytime TD   [GB@TB]
  Anthony Gould — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Antonio Williams — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Ashton Dulin — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Ben Sinnott — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Colson Yankoff — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  DJ Giddens — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Daniel Jones — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Deion Burks — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Drew Ogletree — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Dyami Brown — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Jacory Croskey-Merritt — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Jaylin Lane — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  John Bates — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Jonathan Taylor — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Josh Downs — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Kaytron Allen — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Keenan Allen — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Laquon Treadwell — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Luke McCaffrey — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Marcus Mariota — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Mo Alie-Cox — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Rachaad White — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Seth McGowan — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Stefon Diggs — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Terry McLaurin — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Treylon Burks — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Tyler Warren — Anytime TD   [IND@WSH]
  Ameer Abdullah — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Bhayshul Tuten — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Brenton Strange — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Brian Thomas Jr — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Chase Brown — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Chris Rodriguez Jr. — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Dohnte Meyers — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Drew Sample — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Erick All — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Ja'Marr Chase — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Jakobi Meyers — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Joe Burrow — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Josh Cameron — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Ke'Shawn Williams — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  LeQuint Allen Jr. — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Mike Gesicki — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Nate Boerkircher — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Parker Washington — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Quintin Morris — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Samaje Perine — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Tahj Brooks — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Tanner Hudson — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Tee Higgins — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Travis Hunter — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Trevor Lawrence — Anytime TD   [JAX@CIN]
  Ashton Jeanty — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Brashard Smith — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Brock Bowers — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Cody White — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Connor Heyward — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Cyrus Allen — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Dareke Young — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Dylan Laube — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Emmett Johnson — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Ian Thomas — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Jake Briningstool — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Jalen Nailor — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Jalen Royals — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Jared Wiley — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Kenneth Walker III — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Kirk Cousins — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Malik Benson — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Michael Mayer — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Mike Washington Jr. — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Nikko Remigio — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Noah Gray — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Patrick Mahomes — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Rashee Rice — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Travis Kelce — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Tre Tucker — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Tyquan Thornton — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  Xavier Worthy — Anytime TD   [KC@LV]
  AJ Barner — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Alec Ingold — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Brady Russell — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Cooper Kupp — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Derius Davis — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Elijah Arroyo — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Emanuel Wilson — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Eric Saubert — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  George Holani — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Jadarian Price — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Justin Herbert — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Keaton Mitchell — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Kimani Vidal — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Ladd McConkey — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Nick Kallerup — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Omarion Hampton — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Oronde Gadsden II — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Quentin Johnston — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Rashid Shaheed — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Sam Darnold — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Tory Horton — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Tre Harris — Anytime TD   [LAC@SEA]
  Blake Corum — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Britain Covey — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Colby Parkinson — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Darius Cooper — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Davante Adams — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Davis Allen — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  DeVonta Smith — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Dontayvion Wicks — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  E.J. Jenkins — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Jalen Hurts — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Johnny Mundt — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Jordan Whittington — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Konata Mumpfield — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Kyren Williams — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Makai Lemon — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Matthew Stafford — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Puka Nacua — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Saquon Barkley — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Tank Bigsby — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Tutu Atwell — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Tyler Higbee — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Will Shipley — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Xavier Smith — Anytime TD   [LAR@PHI]
  Aaron Jones — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Chris Bell — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  DJ Herman — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  DeeJay Dallas — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Gavin Bartholomew — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Greg Dulcich — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Jaylen Wright — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Jordan Addison — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Justin Jefferson — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Kevin Coleman Jr. — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Malik Washington — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Malik Willis — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Max Bredeson — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Myles Price — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Ollie Gordon II — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Ryan Miller — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Seydou Traore — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  T.J. Hockenson — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Tai Felton — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Will Kacmarek — Anytime TD   [MIA@MIN]
  Cameron Latu — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Corey Kiner — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  DJ Moore — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Dalton Kincaid — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Dawson Knox — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  DeMario Douglas — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Drake Maye — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Efton Chism III — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Hunter Henry — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Jackson Hawes — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  James Cook — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Josh Allen — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Joshua Palmer — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Keleki Latu — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Keon Coleman — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Khalil Shakir — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Kyle Williams — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Mack Hollins — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Ray Davis — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Reggie Gilliam — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Rhamondre Stevenson — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Romeo Doubs — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  TreVeyon Henderson — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Ty Johnson — Anytime TD   [NE@BUF]
  Andrew Beck — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Braelon Allen — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Cole Kmet — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Colston Loveland — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  D'Andre Swift — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Garrett Wilson — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Geno Smith — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Isaiah Davis — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Isaiah Williams — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Jahdae Walker — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Jelani Woods — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Jeremy Ruckert — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Kalif Raymond — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Kene Nwangwu — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Kenyon Sadiq — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Kyle Monangai — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Luther Burden III — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Rome Odunze — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Roschon Johnson — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Sam Roush — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Tyson Bagent — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Zavion Thomas — Anytime TD   [NYJ@CHI]
  Aaron Rodgers — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Ben Skowronek — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Blake Whiteheart — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  DK Metcalf — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Darnell Washington — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Denzel Boston — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Deshaun Watson — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Germie Bernard — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Harold Fannin Jr. — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Isaiah Bond — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Jaylen Warren — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Jerry Jeudy — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  KC Concepcion — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Malachi Corley — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Michael Burton — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Pat Freiermuth — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Quinshon Judkins — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Raheim Sanders — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Robert Tonyan — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Roman Wilson — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Tylan Wallace — Anytime TD   [PIT@CLE]
  Calvin Ridley — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Cam Ward — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Carnell Tate — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Chimere Dike — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Chris Moore — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Daniel Bellinger — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  David Martin-Robinson — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Derrick Henry — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Devontez Walker — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Durham Smythe — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Elic Ayomanor — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Gunnar Helm — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Josh Cuevas — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Julius Chestnut — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Justice Hill — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  LaJohntay Wester — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Lamar Jackson — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Mark Andrews — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Matthew Hibner — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Rasheen Ali — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Rashod Bateman — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Tony Pollard — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Tyjae Spears — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Wan'Dale Robinson — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]
  Zay Flowers — Anytime TD   [TEN@BAL]

  — MUTED RECEPTIONS —
  Cam Skattebo — Receptions 2.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Darnell Mooney — Receptions 1.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Isaiah Likely — Receptions 3.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Jeremiyah Love — Receptions 3.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Kendrick Bourne — Receptions 2.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Malachi Fields — Receptions 1.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Malik Nabers — Receptions 4.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Marvin Harrison Jr. — Receptions 2.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Michael Wilson — Receptions 5.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Trey McBride — Receptions 7.5   [ARI@NYG]
  Alvin Kamara — Receptions 3.5   [ATL@NO]
  Austin Hooper — Receptions 1.5   [ATL@NO]
  Bijan Robinson — Receptions 4.5   [ATL@NO]
  Chris Olave — Receptions 7.5   [ATL@NO]
  Devaughn Vele — Receptions 4.5   [ATL@NO]
  Drake London — Receptions 5.5   [ATL@NO]
  Jahan Dotson — Receptions 1.5   [ATL@NO]
  Juwan Johnson — Receptions 3.5   [ATL@NO]
  Kyle Pitts — Receptions 2.5   [ATL@NO]
  Noah Fant — Receptions 2.5   [ATL@NO]
  CeeDee Lamb — Receptions 5.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Dalton Schultz — Receptions 4.5   [DAL@HOU]
  David Montgomery — Receptions 1.5   [DAL@HOU]
  George Pickens — Receptions 4.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Jake Ferguson — Receptions 3.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Javonte Williams — Receptions 2.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Jaylin Noel — Receptions 1.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Kayshon Boutte — Receptions 1.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Nico Collins — Receptions 5.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Ryan Flournoy — Receptions 3.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Woody Marks — Receptions 1.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Xavier Hutchinson — Receptions 2.5   [DAL@HOU]
  Christian McCaffrey — Receptions 4.5   [DEN@SF]
  Courtland Sutton — Receptions 3.5   [DEN@SF]
  Evan Engram — Receptions 2.5   [DEN@SF]
  George Kittle — Receptions 4.5   [DEN@SF]
  Jaylen Waddle — Receptions 4.5   [DEN@SF]
  Pat Bryant — Receptions 2.5   [DEN@SF]
  RJ Harvey — Receptions 3.5   [DEN@SF]
  Amon-Ra St. Brown — Receptions 7.5   [DET@CAR]
  Chuba Hubbard — Receptions 2.5   [DET@CAR]
  Darren Waller — Receptions 2.5   [DET@CAR]
  Isaac TeSlaa — Receptions 1.5   [DET@CAR]
  Jahmyr Gibbs — Receptions 4.5   [DET@CAR]
  Jameson Williams — Receptions 3.5   [DET@CAR]
  Sam LaPorta — Receptions 4.5   [DET@CAR]
  Tetairoa McMillan — Receptions 4.5   [DET@CAR]
  Bucky Irving — Receptions 2.5   [GB@TB]
  Cade Otton — Receptions 2.5   [GB@TB]
  Chris Godwin — Receptions 2.5   [GB@TB]
  Christian Watson — Receptions 4.5   [GB@TB]
  Emeka Egbuka — Receptions 3.5   [GB@TB]
  Jonnu Smith — Receptions 1.5   [GB@TB]
  MarShawn Lloyd — Receptions 1.5   [GB@TB]
  Matthew Golden — Receptions 4.5   [GB@TB]
  Skyy Moore — Receptions 1.5   [GB@TB]
  Tucker Kraft — Receptions 3.5   [GB@TB]
  Antonio Williams — Receptions 1.5   [IND@WSH]
  Jonathan Taylor — Receptions 2.5   [IND@WSH]
  Josh Downs — Receptions 5.5   [IND@WSH]
  Keenan Allen — Receptions 3.5   [IND@WSH]
  Stefon Diggs — Receptions 4.5   [IND@WSH]
  Terry McLaurin — Receptions 4.5   [IND@WSH]
  Tyler Warren — Receptions 5.5   [IND@WSH]
  Bhayshul Tuten — Receptions 1.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Brenton Strange — Receptions 3.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Brian Thomas Jr — Receptions 2.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Chase Brown — Receptions 3.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Dohnte Meyers — Receptions 2.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Drew Sample — Receptions 1.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Ja'Marr Chase — Receptions 6.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Jakobi Meyers — Receptions 3.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Mike Gesicki — Receptions 2.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Parker Washington — Receptions 5.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Samaje Perine — Receptions 1.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Tee Higgins — Receptions 4.5   [JAX@CIN]
  Ashton Jeanty — Receptions 3.5   [KC@LV]
  Brock Bowers — Receptions 6.5   [KC@LV]
  Emmett Johnson — Receptions 1.5   [KC@LV]
  Jalen Nailor — Receptions 1.5   [KC@LV]
  Kenneth Walker III — Receptions 2.5   [KC@LV]
  Michael Mayer — Receptions 2.5   [KC@LV]
  Noah Gray — Receptions 1.5   [KC@LV]
  Rashee Rice — Receptions 4.5   [KC@LV]
  Travis Kelce — Receptions 4.5   [KC@LV]
  Tre Tucker — Receptions 3.5   [KC@LV]
  Tyquan Thornton — Receptions 1.5   [KC@LV]
  Xavier Worthy — Receptions 3.5   [KC@LV]
  AJ Barner — Receptions 3.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Cooper Kupp — Receptions 2.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Jadarian Price — Receptions 1.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Receptions 6.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Ladd McConkey — Receptions 3.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Oronde Gadsden II — Receptions 2.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Quentin Johnston — Receptions 2.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Rashid Shaheed — Receptions 1.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Tre Harris — Receptions 2.5   [LAC@SEA]
  Davante Adams — Receptions 4.5   [LAR@PHI]
  DeVonta Smith — Receptions 5.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Dontayvion Wicks — Receptions 2.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Johnny Mundt — Receptions 1.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Kyren Williams — Receptions 2.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Makai Lemon — Receptions 2.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Puka Nacua — Receptions 6.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Saquon Barkley — Receptions 1.5   [LAR@PHI]
  Aaron Jones — Receptions 2.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Chris Bell — Receptions 2.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Greg Dulcich — Receptions 2.5   [MIA@MIN]
  Malik Washington — Receptions 3.5   [MIA@MIN]
  DJ Moore — Receptions 3.5   [NE@BUF]
  Dalton Kincaid — Receptions 4.5   [NE@BUF]
  DeMario Douglas — Receptions 2.5   [NE@BUF]
  Hunter Henry — Receptions 3.5   [NE@BUF]
  James Cook — Receptions 1.5   [NE@BUF]
  Keon Coleman — Receptions 1.5   [NE@BUF]
  Khalil Shakir — Receptions 3.5   [NE@BUF]
  Mack Hollins — Receptions 3.5   [NE@BUF]
  Rhamondre Stevenson — Receptions 2.5   [NE@BUF]
  Romeo Doubs — Receptions 3.5   [NE@BUF]
  TreVeyon Henderson — Receptions 1.5   [NE@BUF]
  Ty Johnson — Receptions 1.5   [NE@BUF]
  Braelon Allen — Receptions 1.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Cole Kmet — Receptions 1.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Colston Loveland — Receptions 3.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  D'Andre Swift — Receptions 2.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Garrett Wilson — Receptions 6.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Isaiah Davis — Receptions 1.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Isaiah Williams — Receptions 2.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Kalif Raymond — Receptions 3.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Kenyon Sadiq — Receptions 4.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Kyle Monangai — Receptions 0.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Luther Burden III — Receptions 4.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Rome Odunze — Receptions 2.5   [NYJ@CHI]
  Blake Whiteheart — Receptions 0.5   [PIT@CLE]
  DK Metcalf — Receptions 3.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Darnell Washington — Receptions 1.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Denzel Boston — Receptions 2.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Germie Bernard — Receptions 1.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Harold Fannin Jr. — Receptions 4.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Jaylen Warren — Receptions 3.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Jerry Jeudy — Receptions 1.5   [PIT@CLE]
  KC Concepcion — Receptions 3.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Pat Freiermuth — Receptions 3.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Quinshon Judkins — Receptions 2.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Raheim Sanders — Receptions 1.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Roman Wilson — Receptions 2.5   [PIT@CLE]
  Calvin Ridley — Receptions 1.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Carnell Tate — Receptions 4.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Elic Ayomanor — Receptions 1.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Gunnar Helm — Receptions 2.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Mark Andrews — Receptions 3.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Rashod Bateman — Receptions 2.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Wan'Dale Robinson — Receptions 3.5   [TEN@BAL]
  Zay Flowers — Receptions 5.5   [TEN@BAL]

THE HONEST RANGE
  Simulated 10,000 times, one unit a pick,
  234 picks across 16 games, every pick above.

  A typical week      +23.53u
  Good week  (top 5%) +49.10u
  Bad week (worst 5%) -2.81u
  Week loses money    7% of the time

  Picks in the same game move together. Treating these as
  independent would put the bad week at -0.14u instead of
  -2.81u — the difference is what the overlap costs.

  Even a real edge loses money in plenty of weeks. This range is
  published so nobody has to take a good or bad week as a verdict.

----------------------------------------------------------
  THE PAPER TRAIL · @PaperTrailPicks
  Every pick, every refusal, hash-committed pre-kickoff.
  Not betting advice. For entertainment purposes.
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