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   T H E   P A P E R   T R A I L
   Picks committed before kickoff. Graded in public.
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  Week 5 · 2026 season · built 2026-10-08 CT
  SHA-256 of this file is published before the first
  kickoff. If the file changes, the hash changes.
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  Model and market probabilities read as
  (model N · X% vs mkt Y%). A blank market figure means
  no price was logged for that pick. The badge on each
  pick is that market’s record: Untested under 40,
  Learning 40–100, Calibrated 100+.
----------------------------------------------------------

BEST BETS (145)

  BAL @ ATL

    Brian Robinson Jr. — Rush att OVER 9.5   (model 10.1 · 57.3% vs mkt 44.4%)   +110
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for the run game.

    Brian Robinson Jr. — Rush yds OVER 35.5   (model 42.1 · 61.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for the run game.

    Derrick Henry — Rush att UNDER 20.5   (model 18.8 · 60.0% vs mkt 50.1%)   -116
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price.

    Drake London — Rec yds UNDER 81.5   (model 73.4 · 56.6% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price.

    Kyle Pitts — Rec yds OVER 24.5   (model 28.9 · 56.2% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Michael Penix Jr. — Completions UNDER 18.5   (model 17.5 · 58.4% vs mkt 51.8%)   -121
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — with only a little of this season behind
      him.

    Michael Penix Jr. — Pass att UNDER 28.5   (model 27.2 · 56.2% vs mkt 48.2%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — with only a little of this season behind
      him.

  BUF @ LAR

    Blake Corum — Rush yds OVER 31.5   (model 37.8 · 59.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for the run game.

    Josh Allen — Rush att UNDER 7.5   (model 6.6 · 59.9% vs mkt 50.3%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price.

    Josh Allen — Rush yds UNDER 36.5   (model 30.9 · 60.4% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Matthew Stafford — Completions UNDER 23.5   (model 22.3 · 60.1% vs mkt 52.0%)   -125
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Matthew Stafford — Pass att UNDER 36.5   (model 34.9 · 57.3% vs mkt 47.6%)   -112
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game.

  CHI @ GB

    Moneyline CHI   (model 69.4% vs mkt 57.9%)   -148
      [Learning 64/100]  We make this side more likely to
      win than the price implies.

    D'Andre Swift — Rush att UNDER 13.5   (model 12.9 · 56.6% vs mkt 48.9%)   -108
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      he is carrying a questionable tag and the game
      script points his way.

    Kaleb Johnson — Rush yds UNDER 36.5   (model 30.2 · 62.9% vs mkt 50.2%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and with only a little of this season behind him.

    Kalif Raymond — Rec yds OVER 28.5   (model 40 · 64.5% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Kyle Monangai — Rush att UNDER 11.5   (model 10.6 · 55.3% vs mkt 45.4%)   +106
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — he is carrying a questionable tag and the
      game script points his way.

    MarShawn Lloyd — Rush yds UNDER 27.5   (model 21.5 · 66.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Matthew Golden — Rec yds UNDER 56.5   (model 45.1 · 63.3% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Rome Odunze — Rec yds OVER 38.5   (model 44.5 · 57.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

  CIN @ MIA

    Chase Brown — Rush att UNDER 16.5   (model 15.6 · 58.7% vs mkt 48.3%)   -106
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Malik Washington — Rec yds UNDER 41.5   (model 36.6 · 58.3% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Malik Willis — Rush yds UNDER 32.5   (model 26.8 · 60.0% vs mkt 50.2%)   -116
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Ollie Gordon II — Rush att UNDER 11.5   (model 7.1 · 81.7% vs mkt 54.1%)   -133
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Ollie Gordon II — Rush yds UNDER 45.5   (model 28.4 · 74.2% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Samaje Perine — Rush yds OVER 14.5   (model 18 · 58.0% vs mkt 49.7%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

  CLE @ NYJ

    Braelon Allen — Rush att UNDER 17.5   (model 11.4 · 91.8% vs mkt 51.5%)   -120
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Denzel Boston — Rec yds OVER 47.5   (model 58.6 · 68.5% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Deshaun Watson — Pass yds OVER 199.5   (model 211.2 · 58.7% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Garrett Wilson — Rec yds UNDER 69.5   (model 62.9 · 57.6% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    KC Concepcion — Rec yds UNDER 41.5   (model 37.4 · 57.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Quinshon Judkins — Rush att UNDER 16.5   (model 15 · 61.2% vs mkt 52.3%)   -131
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the run game.

    Quinshon Judkins — Rush yds UNDER 59.5   (model 51.6 · 60.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for the run game.

  DEN @ LAC

    Bo Nix — Completions UNDER 21.5   (model 20.3 · 59.1% vs mkt 51.1%)   -118
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Bo Nix — Pass att UNDER 33.5   (model 32.2 · 57.0% vs mkt 50.7%)   -116
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    Bo Nix — Pass yds UNDER 217.5   (model 205.8 · 56.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game.

    J.K. Dobbins — Rush yds OVER 51.5   (model 57 · 59.0% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Jaylen Waddle — Rec yds UNDER 53.5   (model 43.4 · 57.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Justin Herbert — Completions OVER 18.5   (model 19.8 · 58.7% vs mkt 49.8%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Justin Herbert — Pass att OVER 30.5   (model 31.8 · 55.9% vs mkt 47.6%)   -103
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Justin Herbert — Pass yds OVER 199.5   (model 218.4 · 60.3% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Keaton Mitchell — Rush att UNDER 7.5   (model 6.5 · 61.5% vs mkt 47.6%)   -103
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Keaton Mitchell — Rush yds UNDER 31.5   (model 28.4 · 56.0% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price.

    Omarion Hampton — Rush att OVER 10.5   (model 11.3 · 58.3% vs mkt 52.0%)   -125
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Omarion Hampton — Rush yds OVER 37.5   (model 44 · 60.3% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    RJ Harvey — Rush yds OVER 18.5   (model 23 · 59.0% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way, a soft matchup for
      the run game and with only a little of this season
      behind him.

  DET @ ARI

    Amon-Ra St. Brown — Rec yds UNDER 81.5   (model 72.9 · 58.1% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a soft matchup for receivers.

    Jacoby Brissett — Rush yds OVER 6.5   (model 8 · 57.6% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Jahmyr Gibbs — Rush att UNDER 19.5   (model 18.5 · 58.0% vs mkt 50.7%)   -116
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Jared Goff — Completions UNDER 24.5   (model 23.3 · 59.3% vs mkt 51.6%)   -120
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Jared Goff — Pass yds UNDER 279.5   (model 266.9 · 57.9% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Jeremiyah Love — Rec yds UNDER 11.5   (model 9.3 · 58.1% vs mkt 50.9%)   -120
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and he is carrying a
      questionable tag.

    Trey McBride — Rec yds UNDER 80.5   (model 75.8 · 56.4% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Tyler Allgeier — Rec yds UNDER 11.5   (model 9.9 · 59.3% vs mkt 49.2%)   -110
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

  HOU @ TEN

    C.J. Stroud — Completions UNDER 21.5   (model 19.8 · 60.9% vs mkt 48.4%)   -106
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price.

    C.J. Stroud — Pass yds UNDER 237.5   (model 226.2 · 56.6% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price.

    C.J. Stroud — Rush yds OVER 9.5   (model 12.1 · 60.5% vs mkt 49.9%)   -117
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Cam Ward — Completions OVER 19.5   (model 20.7 · 57.6% vs mkt 51.1%)   -118
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    Cam Ward — Pass att OVER 31.5   (model 33.6 · 59.2% vs mkt 50.4%)   -119
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    Cam Ward — Pass yds OVER 190.5   (model 202.3 · 57.8% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    Carnell Tate — Rec yds OVER 50.5   (model 61.4 · 59.6% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    David Montgomery — Rec yds OVER 7.5   (model 10.8 · 65.3% vs mkt 49.5%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    David Montgomery — Rush att UNDER 15.5   (model 13.4 · 63.7% vs mkt 52.4%)   -124
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    David Montgomery — Rush yds UNDER 46.5   (model 38.2 · 62.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Elic Ayomanor — Rec yds OVER 17.5   (model 25.5 · 66.6% vs mkt 50.7%)   -120
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Nico Collins — Rec yds UNDER 80.5   (model 75.2 · 56.6% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — with only a little of this season behind
      him.

    Tony Pollard — Rush att UNDER 14.5   (model 12.7 · 64.7% vs mkt 51.9%)   -122
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Tyjae Spears — Rec yds OVER 9.5   (model 13.6 · 63.7% vs mkt 49.7%)   -111
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Woody Marks — Rush att OVER 8.5   (model 9.7 · 58.2% vs mkt 48.9%)   -108
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Woody Marks — Rush yds OVER 28.5   (model 33.2 · 58.2% vs mkt 50.1%)   -118
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Xavier Hutchinson — Rec yds OVER 16.5   (model 22.2 · 62.7% vs mkt 50.2%)   -116
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

  IND @ PIT

    Aaron Rodgers — Pass att UNDER 34.5   (model 33.7 · 54.1% vs mkt 48.0%)   -104
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Daniel Jones — Completions OVER 19.5   (model 20.6 · 57.9% vs mkt 51.6%)   -120
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Daniel Jones — Rush yds UNDER 10.5   (model 8.5 · 57.1% vs mkt 50.7%)   -120
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Jonathan Taylor — Rush att UNDER 19.5   (model 18 · 62.7% vs mkt 50.4%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the run game.

    Jonathan Taylor — Rush yds UNDER 86.5   (model 79 · 56.4% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the run game.

    Josh Downs — Rec yds UNDER 57.5   (model 48.4 · 64.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Roman Wilson — Rec yds UNDER 32.5   (model 26.3 · 60.1% vs mkt 50.8%)   -120
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Tyler Warren — Rec yds UNDER 48.5   (model 43.5 · 58.4% vs mkt 50.6%)   -118
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

  LV @ NE

    Ashton Jeanty — Rush att UNDER 16.5   (model 15.6 · 56.4% vs mkt 49.9%)   -119
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price.

    Brock Bowers — Rec yds UNDER 72.5   (model 67 · 56.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — he is carrying a questionable tag, the game
      script points his way and with only a little of this
      season behind him.

    Drake Maye — Completions UNDER 19.5   (model 18.6 · 56.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price.

    Drake Maye — Pass att UNDER 29.5   (model 27.7 · 58.9% vs mkt 48.1%)   -108
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price.

    Kirk Cousins — Completions OVER 21.5   (model 23.9 · 67.7% vs mkt 49.9%)   -124
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Kirk Cousins — Pass att OVER 33.5   (model 37.2 · 63.5% vs mkt 51.4%)   -125
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Kirk Cousins — Pass yds OVER 232.5   (model 262.8 · 64.1% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Kirk Cousins — Rush yds UNDER 0.5   (model 0 · 99.9% vs mkt 52.4%)   -128
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

  MIN @ NO

    Moneyline MIN   (model 66.8% vs mkt 54.5%)   -130
      [Learning 64/100]  We make this side more likely to
      win than the price implies.

    Aaron Jones — Rush att UNDER 16.5   (model 15.2 · 58.7% vs mkt 48.1%)   -105
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Aaron Jones — Rush yds UNDER 72.5   (model 64.7 · 60.3% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Juwan Johnson — Rec yds OVER 42.5   (model 48.6 · 60.9% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Kyler Murray — Completions UNDER 20.5   (model 17.9 · 58.7% vs mkt 47.8%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and with only a little of this season behind him.

    Kyler Murray — Pass att UNDER 31.5   (model 27.7 · 59.0% vs mkt 49.3%)   -110
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and with only a little of this season behind him.

    Kyler Murray — Pass yds UNDER 212.5   (model 179.9 · 61.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and with only a little of this season behind him.

    Kyler Murray — Rush yds UNDER 17.5   (model 15.6 · 57.0% vs mkt 49.5%)   -110
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and with only a
      little of this season behind him.

  NYG @ WSH

    Cam Skattebo — Rec yds OVER 12.5   (model 15.4 · 58.1% vs mkt 50.3%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      he is carrying a questionable tag and the game
      script points his way.

    Cam Skattebo — Rush att UNDER 15.5   (model 13.5 · 61.5% vs mkt 48.1%)   -105
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Cam Skattebo — Rush yds UNDER 57.5   (model 49.9 · 60.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Darnell Mooney — Rec yds OVER 17.5   (model 20.2 · 56.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

    Jacory Croskey-Merritt — Rush att UNDER 13.5   (model 11.7 · 65.8% vs mkt 48.9%)   -108
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      he is carrying a questionable tag and the game
      script points his way.

    Jacory Croskey-Merritt — Rush yds UNDER 55.5   (model 43.4 · 65.8% vs mkt 50.1%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      he is carrying a questionable tag and the game
      script points his way.

    Jameis Winston — Completions UNDER 18.5   (model 16.6 · 60.6% vs mkt 51.9%)   -125
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way, a tough matchup for
      the passing game and with only a little of this
      season behind him.

    Jameis Winston — Pass att UNDER 31.5   (model 28.8 · 58.7% vs mkt 52.6%)   -125
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way, a tough matchup for
      the passing game and with only a little of this
      season behind him.

    Jameis Winston — Rush yds OVER 2.5   (model 3.5 · 59.5% vs mkt 47.8%)   -108
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      a tough matchup for the run game and with only a
      little of this season behind him.

    Jayden Daniels — Completions UNDER 17.5   (model 15.9 · 63.2% vs mkt 47.2%)   -101
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      a tough matchup for the passing game and with only a
      little of this season behind him.

    Jayden Daniels — Pass att UNDER 29.5   (model 26.8 · 63.4% vs mkt 48.6%)   -107
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      a tough matchup for the passing game and with only a
      little of this season behind him.

    Jayden Daniels — Pass yds UNDER 193.5   (model 172 · 65.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      a tough matchup for the passing game and with only a
      little of this season behind him.

    Jayden Daniels — Rush yds OVER 30.5   (model 34.5 · 56.9% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way, a tough matchup for
      the run game and with only a little of this season
      behind him.

  PHI @ JAX

    Bhayshul Tuten — Rec yds UNDER 9.5   (model 7.5 · 58.8% vs mkt 49.8%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Bhayshul Tuten — Rush att UNDER 14.5   (model 11.7 · 70.4% vs mkt 46.2%)   +103
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Bhayshul Tuten — Rush yds UNDER 67.5   (model 50.9 · 72.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Brian Thomas Jr — Rec yds OVER 24.5   (model 30.1 · 60.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Jalen Hurts — Completions OVER 18.5   (model 19.5 · 58.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    Jalen Hurts — Pass yds OVER 187.5   (model 205 · 60.1% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    Jalen Hurts — Rush att UNDER 6.5   (model 5.6 · 60.1% vs mkt 51.8%)   -121
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for the run game.

    Makai Lemon — Rec yds UNDER 32.5   (model 24.2 · 69.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Parker Washington — Rec yds UNDER 60.5   (model 52.7 · 58.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a soft matchup for receivers.

    Trevor Lawrence — Completions UNDER 19.5   (model 18.5 · 59.7% vs mkt 46.6%)   -105
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Trevor Lawrence — Pass att UNDER 29.5   (model 28.5 · 55.6% vs mkt 48.9%)   -108
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Trevor Lawrence — Rush att OVER 3.5   (model 3.9 · 55.3% vs mkt 48.9%)   -108
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Trevor Lawrence — Rush yds OVER 11.5   (model 14.6 · 60.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

  SF @ SEA

    Brock Purdy — Completions OVER 20.5   (model 21.4 · 58.8% vs mkt 49.1%)   -109
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — the game script points his way.

    Brock Purdy — Pass yds OVER 218.5   (model 243 · 65.5% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Christian McCaffrey — Rec yds OVER 35.5   (model 39.2 · 56.7% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Deebo Samuel — Rec yds OVER 31.5   (model 38.8 · 63.3% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Deebo Samuel — Rush yds OVER 8.5   (model 12.4 · 62.3% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Emanuel Wilson — Rush yds UNDER 60.5   (model 53.6 · 56.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    George Holani — Rec yds UNDER 8.5   (model 6.7 · 57.3% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number
      and he is carrying a questionable tag.

    George Holani — Rush yds UNDER 19.5   (model 13.6 · 69.1% vs mkt 50.6%)   -116
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      he is carrying a questionable tag and the game
      script points his way.

    George Kittle — Rec yds OVER 52.5   (model 57 · 55.9% vs mkt 49.7%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Kaelon Black — Rush yds OVER 14.5   (model 18.6 · 59.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Rashid Shaheed — Rec yds UNDER 20.5   (model 17 · 56.6% vs mkt 49.4%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for receivers.

    Sam Darnold — Completions UNDER 19.5   (model 17.9 · 59.4% vs mkt 45.7%)   +103
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      a tough matchup for the passing game and with only a
      little of this season behind him.

    Sam Darnold — Pass att UNDER 30.5   (model 27.5 · 62.0% vs mkt 48.8%)   -110
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number,
      a tough matchup for the passing game and with only a
      little of this season behind him.

    Sam Darnold — Pass yds UNDER 227.5   (model 214 · 56.3% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — a tough matchup for the passing game and
      with only a little of this season behind him.

    Tory Horton — Rec yds OVER 9.5   (model 11.7 · 56.2% vs mkt 49.6%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      a tough matchup for receivers and with only a little
      of this season behind him.

  TB @ DAL

    Bucky Irving — Rec yds OVER 12.5   (model 16 · 57.2% vs mkt 50.2%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Dak Prescott — Completions UNDER 23.5   (model 22.3 · 57.6% vs mkt 49.0%)   -112
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price.

    Dak Prescott — Pass yds UNDER 268.5   (model 248.9 · 60.8% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price.

    Dak Prescott — Rush yds OVER 9.5   (model 11 · 56.0% vs mkt 49.8%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Javonte Williams — Rec yds UNDER 14.5   (model 11.6 · 61.6% vs mkt 49.7%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Kenny Gainwell — Rush yds UNDER 11.5   (model 7.9 · 67.2% vs mkt 50.6%)   -118
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits below this number.

    Ryan Flournoy — Rec yds UNDER 31.5   (model 26 · 57.4% vs mkt 50.7%)   -118
      [Calibrated 2211]  A real disagreement with the
      price.

    Ted Hurst III — Rec yds OVER 20.5   (model 26.8 · 62.7% vs mkt 49.8%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  A clear disagreement with the
      price — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

    Total OVER 47.5   (model 51.8 · 62.9% vs mkt 50.2%)   -110
      [Learning 63/100]  We land a clear distance off the
      posted total.

WORTH A LOOK (66)

  BAL @ ATL

    Bijan Robinson — Rec yds OVER 27.5   (model 29.6 · 53.0% vs mkt 49.1%)   -112
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a tough matchup for receivers.

    Bijan Robinson — Rush yds OVER 87.5   (model 92.9 · 54.4% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for the run game.

    Justice Hill — Rush yds UNDER 11.5   (model 10 · 54.2% vs mkt 49.7%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    Rashod Bateman — Rec yds OVER 17.5   (model 19.2 · 53.4% vs mkt 49.8%)   -112
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      he is carrying a questionable tag and the game
      script points his way.

    Zay Flowers — Rec yds OVER 66.5   (model 70.1 · 53.8% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      he is carrying a questionable tag, the game script
      points his way and with only a little of this season
      behind him.

    Total OVER 43.5   (model 46.6 · 59.4% vs mkt 50.2%)   -110
      [Learning 63/100]  We land just off the posted total
      — a lean, not a strong call.

  BUF @ LAR

    James Cook — Rush att UNDER 17.5   (model 16.4 · 56.9% vs mkt 52.1%)   -125
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    James Cook — Rush yds OVER 75.5   (model 81.6 · 55.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number.

    Josh Allen — Completions UNDER 20.5   (model 20.3 · 50.9% vs mkt 47.2%)   -101
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Josh Allen — Pass att UNDER 32.5   (model 30.9 · 56.9% vs mkt 53.0%)   -135
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Kyren Williams — Rush att UNDER 14.5   (model 13.9 · 55.9% vs mkt 50.8%)   -128
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a tough
      matchup for the run game.

    Matthew Stafford — Pass yds UNDER 277.5   (model 266.5 · 55.2% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a tough matchup for the passing game.

  CHI @ GB

    Christian Watson — Rec yds OVER 60.5   (model 63.7 · 53.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

    Jordan Love — Completions OVER 20.5   (model 21.1 · 54.0% vs mkt 48.3%)   -118
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    Jordan Love — Pass att OVER 33.5   (model 34.4 · 53.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    Jordan Love — Pass yds OVER 234.5   (model 244.3 · 54.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way and a soft
      matchup for the passing game.

    Kyle Monangai — Rush yds UNDER 51.5   (model 45.9 · 55.2% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      he is carrying a questionable tag and the game
      script points his way.

    MarShawn Lloyd — Rec yds UNDER 13.5   (model 12.3 · 53.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way.

    Skyy Moore — Rec yds UNDER 11.5   (model 9.6 · 55.9% vs mkt 50.7%)   -116
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for receivers.

  CIN @ MIA

    Jaylen Wright — Rush yds UNDER 21.5   (model 18.3 · 55.3% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — with only a little of this season behind
      him.

  CLE @ NYJ

    Geno Smith — Completions OVER 20.5   (model 21 · 51.9% vs mkt 46.4%)   +102
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Geno Smith — Pass yds OVER 206.5   (model 218.1 · 55.5% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Geno Smith — Rush yds UNDER 10.5   (model 9.6 · 55.3% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number,
      a soft matchup for the run game and the game script
      points his way.

    Isaiah Davis — Rush yds UNDER 10.5   (model 8.9 · 55.1% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

  DEN @ LAC

    Justin Herbert — Rush yds UNDER 26.5   (model 24.7 · 53.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

  DET @ ARI

    Isaac TeSlaa — Rec yds UNDER 25.5   (model 22.3 · 55.5% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Jacoby Brissett — Completions OVER 24.5   (model 26 · 55.3% vs mkt 50.1%)   -118
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way.

    Jahmyr Gibbs — Rec yds UNDER 37.5   (model 34.7 · 54.3% vs mkt 50.3%)   -117
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Jahmyr Gibbs — Rush yds UNDER 90.5   (model 84.1 · 55.1% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the run game.

    Jeremiyah Love — Rush att UNDER 12.5   (model 11.5 · 57.6% vs mkt 53.9%)   -135
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and he is carrying a questionable tag.

    Michael Wilson — Rec yds UNDER 74.5   (model 69.3 · 54.6% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Sam LaPorta — Rec yds UNDER 51.5   (model 48.6 · 54.7% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Tyler Allgeier — Rush yds UNDER 25.5   (model 23.2 · 53.7% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a tough matchup for the run game.

    Total OVER 54.5   (model 57.6 · 59.4% vs mkt 49.5%)   -110
      [Learning 63/100]  We land just off the posted total
      — a lean, not a strong call.

  HOU @ TEN

    C.J. Stroud — Pass att UNDER 31.5   (model 30.3 · 54.8% vs mkt 51.1%)   -120
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    Cam Ward — Rush yds UNDER 10.5   (model 9.3 · 54.6% vs mkt 49.7%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for the run game.

    Woody Marks — Rec yds UNDER 8.5   (model 7.6 · 53.5% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number.

  IND @ PIT

    Aaron Rodgers — Completions UNDER 21.5   (model 20.9 · 54.6% vs mkt 49.6%)   -111
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a soft matchup for the passing game.

    Daniel Jones — Pass yds OVER 212.5   (model 219.7 · 54.3% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way.

    Jonathan Taylor — Rec yds OVER 15.5   (model 17.1 · 54.9% vs mkt 49.7%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

  LV @ NE

    Moneyline NE   (model 68.1% vs mkt 64.5%)   -197
      [Learning 64/100]  A small lean on the price, no
      more than that.

    Ashton Jeanty — Rush yds UNDER 59.5   (model 55 · 55.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    DeMario Douglas — Rec yds UNDER 23.5   (model 20.2 · 55.9% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    Drake Maye — Pass yds UNDER 230.5   (model 224.3 · 54.8% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    Drake Maye — Rush yds UNDER 31.5   (model 29.2 · 54.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — the game script points his way.

    Michael Mayer — Rec yds OVER 28.5   (model 30.6 · 53.6% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Romeo Doubs — Rec yds UNDER 50.5   (model 46.2 · 54.7% vs mkt 50.1%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    Tre Tucker — Rec yds OVER 39.5   (model 42.9 · 54.5% vs mkt 50.6%)   -118
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

  MIN @ NO

    Aaron Jones — Rec yds UNDER 18.5   (model 16.7 · 55.6% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Chris Olave — Rec yds OVER 79.5   (model 84.8 · 55.6% vs mkt 50.1%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and the game script points his way.

    Tyler Shough — Pass att UNDER 37.5   (model 35.3 · 56.4% vs mkt 52.8%)   -126
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — he is carrying a questionable tag and the
      game script points his way.

    Tyler Shough — Rush yds OVER 9.5   (model 11.3 · 55.8% vs mkt 50.2%)   -116
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and he is carrying a questionable tag.

  NYG @ WSH

    Jayden Daniels — Rush att OVER 6.5   (model 6.7 · 52.4% vs mkt 46.8%)   +100
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way, a tough matchup for
      the run game and with only a little of this season
      behind him.

    Malachi Fields — Rec yds OVER 26.5   (model 28.6 · 54.0% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

    Malik Nabers — Rec yds UNDER 54.5   (model 50.1 · 53.5% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — he is carrying a questionable tag and the
      game script points his way.

  PHI @ JAX

    Moneyline JAX   (model 79.9% vs mkt 76.0%)   -345
      [Learning 64/100]  A small lean on the price, no
      more than that.

    Brenton Strange — Rec yds OVER 33.5   (model 35.7 · 54.0% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Jalen Hurts — Pass att OVER 31.5   (model 32.2 · 53.9% vs mkt 48.6%)   -107
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits below this number,
      the game script points his way and a soft matchup
      for the passing game.

    Jalen Hurts — Rush yds UNDER 26.5   (model 23.8 · 56.0% vs mkt 50.1%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a soft matchup for the run game.

    Josh Cameron — Rec yds OVER 12.5   (model 14.3 · 55.2% vs mkt 49.9%)   -113
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number
      and a soft matchup for receivers.

    Trevor Lawrence — Pass yds UNDER 223.5   (model 216.2 · 55.6% vs mkt 50.0%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — a soft matchup for the passing game.

  TB @ DAL

    Cade Otton — Rec yds OVER 30.5   (model 33.8 · 55.5% vs mkt 50.4%)   -117
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

    Chris Godwin — Rec yds OVER 29.5   (model 33 · 55.7% vs mkt 49.9%)   -114
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

    Dak Prescott — Pass att UNDER 33.5   (model 32.3 · 55.9% vs mkt 51.0%)   -124
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

    Emeka Egbuka — Rec yds OVER 35.5   (model 39.5 · 54.8% vs mkt 50.0%)   -115
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market — his own recent work sits above this number,
      the game script points his way and a tough matchup
      for receivers.

    Jake Ferguson — Rec yds UNDER 27.5   (model 24.5 · 55.5% vs mkt 50.3%)   -116
      [Calibrated 2211]  Thin edge, mostly agrees with the
      market.

Passed on 661 other markets the model looked at — 119 thin
edge, 21 team change, 370 muted TD, 115 muted receptions,
16 line out of range, 15 no projection, 5 under 3 games.

==========================================================
REFUSED (661) — looked at, not picked

  Nothing below is a bet. These are the markets the
  model saw and declined, with the reason. They are
  inside the hash so the list cannot be trimmed after
  the fact.


  — TEAM CHANGE —
  Alex Bachman — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Jalen Tolbert — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Charlie Kolar — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Hayden Rucci — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Marquez Valdes-Scantling — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Teagan Quitoriano — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Tyler Conklin — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Kylen Granson — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Michael Carter — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Darius Slayton — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Rico Dowdle — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Charlie Jones — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Chig Okonkwo — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Dameon Pierce — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Elijah Moore — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Josiah Deguara — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Zach Ertz — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Brandin Cooks — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Emari Demercado — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Tyler Goodson — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Tyler Goodson — Rush yds 15.5   [TB@DAL]

  — UNDER 3 GAMES —
  Jalon Daniels — Completions 17.5   [TB@DAL]
  Jalon Daniels — Pass att 28.5   [TB@DAL]
  Jalon Daniels — Pass yds 181.5   [TB@DAL]
  Jalon Daniels — Rush att 7.5   [TB@DAL]
  Jalon Daniels — Rush yds 43.5   [TB@DAL]

  — NO PROJECTION —
  Elijah Sarratt — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Dean Connors — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Caleb Douglas — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Jack Endries — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Justin Joly — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Jamaal Pritchett — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Malik McClain — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Brenen Thompson — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Brevin Jordan — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Eli Heidenreich — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Tanner Arkin — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  CJ Williams — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Tanner Koziol — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Montorie Foster Jr. — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Jalon Daniels — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]

  — LINE OUT OF RANGE —
  Michael Penix Jr. — Rush yds 0.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Tyler Huntley — Pass yds 173.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Matthew Stafford — Rush yds 0.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Tyson Bagent — Completions 20.5   [CHI@GB]
  Tyson Bagent — Pass att 31.5   [CHI@GB]
  Tyson Bagent — Pass yds 218.5   [CHI@GB]
  Tyson Bagent — Rush yds 10.5   [CHI@GB]
  Ollie Gordon II — Rec yds 10.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Braelon Allen — Rush yds 70.5   [CLE@NYJ]
  Jared Goff — Rush yds 0.5   [DET@ARI]
  Calvin Ridley — Rec yds 8.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Calvin Ridley — Receptions 0.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Will Shipley — Rec yds 13.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Will Shipley — Receptions 2.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Will Shipley — Rush yds 37.5   [PHI@JAX]
  KaVontae Turpin — Rec yds 3.5   [TB@DAL]

  — THIN EDGE —
  Moneyline   [BAL@ATL]
  Bijan Robinson — Rush att 18.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Derrick Henry — Rush yds 85.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Jahan Dotson — Rec yds 19.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Mark Andrews — Rec yds 29.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Michael Penix Jr. — Pass yds 212.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Moneyline   [BUF@LAR]
  Total 54.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Dalton Kincaid — Rec yds 50.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Davante Adams — Rec yds 64.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Josh Allen — Pass yds 244.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Kyren Williams — Rec yds 19.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Kyren Williams — Rush yds 68.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Puka Nacua — Rec yds 94.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Total 45.5   [CHI@GB]
  Colston Loveland — Rec yds 35.5   [CHI@GB]
  D'Andre Swift — Rec yds 13.5   [CHI@GB]
  D'Andre Swift — Rush yds 60.5   [CHI@GB]
  Jordan Love — Rush yds 6.5   [CHI@GB]
  Luther Burden III — Rec yds 48.5   [CHI@GB]
  Tucker Kraft — Rec yds 49.5   [CHI@GB]
  Moneyline   [CIN@MIA]
  Total 42.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Chase Brown — Rush yds 66.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Greg Dulcich — Rec yds 27.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Joe Burrow — Completions 23.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Joe Burrow — Pass att 33.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Joe Burrow — Pass yds 235.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Joe Burrow — Rush yds 8.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Malik Willis — Completions 16.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Malik Willis — Pass att 28.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Malik Willis — Pass yds 192.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Moneyline   [CLE@NYJ]
  Total 40   [CLE@NYJ]
  Deshaun Watson — Completions 19.5   [CLE@NYJ]
  Deshaun Watson — Pass att 30.5   [CLE@NYJ]
  Deshaun Watson — Rush att 5.5   [CLE@NYJ]
  Deshaun Watson — Rush yds 24.5   [CLE@NYJ]
  Geno Smith — Pass att 31.5   [CLE@NYJ]
  Harold Fannin Jr. — Rec yds 37.5   [CLE@NYJ]
  Moneyline   [DEN@LAC]
  Total 42.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Bo Nix — Rush att 4.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Bo Nix — Rush yds 14.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Courtland Sutton — Rec yds 35.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Evan Engram — Rec yds 17.5   [DEN@LAC]
  J.K. Dobbins — Rush att 13.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Marvin Mims Jr. — Rec yds 13.5   [DEN@LAC]
  RJ Harvey — Rec yds 26.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Troy Franklin — Rec yds 19.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Moneyline   [DET@ARI]
  Jacoby Brissett — Pass att 36.5   [DET@ARI]
  Jacoby Brissett — Pass yds 266.5   [DET@ARI]
  Jameson Williams — Rec yds 51.5   [DET@ARI]
  Jared Goff — Pass att 34.5   [DET@ARI]
  Jeremiyah Love — Rush yds 45.5   [DET@ARI]
  Kendrick Bourne — Rec yds 23.5   [DET@ARI]
  Marvin Harrison Jr. — Rec yds 34.5   [DET@ARI]
  Tyler Allgeier — Rush att 6.5   [DET@ARI]
  Moneyline   [HOU@TEN]
  Total 37.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Dalton Schultz — Rec yds 36.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Gunnar Helm — Rec yds 18.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Jaylin Noel — Rec yds 17.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Kayshon Boutte — Rec yds 25.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Tony Pollard — Rec yds 8.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Tony Pollard — Rush yds 48.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Tyjae Spears — Rush yds 13.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Wan'Dale Robinson — Rec yds 32.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Moneyline   [IND@PIT]
  Total 44.5   [IND@PIT]
  Aaron Rodgers — Pass yds 220.5   [IND@PIT]
  DK Metcalf — Rec yds 49.5   [IND@PIT]
  Daniel Jones — Pass att 32.5   [IND@PIT]
  Darnell Washington — Rec yds 22.5   [IND@PIT]
  Keenan Allen — Rec yds 27.5   [IND@PIT]
  Pat Freiermuth — Rec yds 26.5   [IND@PIT]
  Total 45.5   [LV@NE]
  Ashton Jeanty — Rec yds 24.5   [LV@NE]
  Cody White — Rec yds 16.5   [LV@NE]
  Hunter Henry — Rec yds 37.5   [LV@NE]
  Mike Washington Jr. — Rush yds 22.5   [LV@NE]
  Total 42   [MIN@NO]
  Devaughn Vele — Rec yds 35.5   [MIN@NO]
  Tyler Shough — Completions 23.5   [MIN@NO]
  Tyler Shough — Pass yds 238.5   [MIN@NO]
  Moneyline   [NYG@WSH]
  Total 43.5   [NYG@WSH]
  Isaiah Likely — Rec yds 40.5   [NYG@WSH]
  Jameis Winston — Pass yds 193.5   [NYG@WSH]
  Najee Harris — Rush yds 28.5   [NYG@WSH]
  Total 41.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Chris Rodriguez Jr. — Rush att 6.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Chris Rodriguez Jr. — Rush yds 26.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Dontayvion Wicks — Rec yds 47.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Jakobi Meyers — Rec yds 41.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Moneyline   [SF@SEA]
  Total 47   [SF@SEA]
  AJ Barner — Rec yds 23.5   [SF@SEA]
  Brock Purdy — Pass att 32.5   [SF@SEA]
  Brock Purdy — Rush yds 19.5   [SF@SEA]
  Christian McCaffrey — Rush att 14.5   [SF@SEA]
  Christian McCaffrey — Rush yds 53.5   [SF@SEA]
  Cooper Kupp — Rec yds 24.5   [SF@SEA]
  Emanuel Wilson — Rec yds 8.5   [SF@SEA]
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Rec yds 94.5   [SF@SEA]
  Mike Evans — Rec yds 47.5   [SF@SEA]
  Sam Darnold — Rush yds 4.5   [SF@SEA]
  Moneyline   [TB@DAL]
  Brevyn Spann-Ford — Rec yds 4.5   [TB@DAL]
  Bucky Irving — Rush att 13.5   [TB@DAL]
  Bucky Irving — Rush yds 51.5   [TB@DAL]
  CeeDee Lamb — Rec yds 81.5   [TB@DAL]
  George Pickens — Rec yds 61.5   [TB@DAL]
  Javonte Williams — Rush att 16.5   [TB@DAL]
  Javonte Williams — Rush yds 70.5   [TB@DAL]
  Kenny Gainwell — Rec yds 12.5   [TB@DAL]
  Sean Tucker — Rush yds 10.5   [TB@DAL]
  Tez Johnson — Rec yds 13.5   [TB@DAL]

  — MUTED TD —
  Austin Hooper — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Bijan Robinson — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Brian Robinson Jr. — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Charlie Woerner — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Chris Blair — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Chris Moore — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Derrick Henry — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Devontez Walker — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Drake London — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Jahan Dotson — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Josh Cuevas — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Justice Hill — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Kyle Pitts — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  LaJohntay Wester — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Mark Andrews — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Matthew Hibner — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Michael Penix Jr. — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Nick Muse — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Olamide Zaccheaus — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Rasheen Ali — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Rashod Bateman — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Tyler Huntley — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Zachariah Branch — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Zay Flowers — Anytime TD   [BAL@ATL]
  Blake Corum — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Colby Parkinson — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  DJ Moore — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Dalton Kincaid — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Davante Adams — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Davis Allen — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Dawson Knox — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Greg Dortch — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Jackson Hawes — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  James Cook — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Jordan Whittington — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Josh Allen — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Joshua Palmer — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Keleki Latu — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Keon Coleman — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Khalil Shakir — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Konata Mumpfield — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Kyren Williams — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Matthew Stafford — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Max Klare — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Puka Nacua — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Ray Davis — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Tutu Atwell — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Ty Johnson — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Tyler Higbee — Anytime TD   [BUF@LAR]
  Bo Melton — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Chris Brooks — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Christian Watson — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Cole Kmet — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Colston Loveland — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  D'Andre Swift — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  J. Michael Sturdivant — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Jahdae Walker — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Jonnu Smith — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Jordan Love — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Josh Whyle — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Kaleb Johnson — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Kalif Raymond — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Kyle Monangai — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Luther Burden III — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  MarShawn Lloyd — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Mark Redman — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Matthew Golden — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Rome Odunze — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Roschon Johnson — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Sam Roush — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Skyy Moore — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Tucker Kraft — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Tyson Bagent — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Zavion Thomas — Anytime TD   [CHI@GB]
  Chase Brown — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Chris Bell — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Colbie Young — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  DJ Herman — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Dohnte Meyers — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Drew Sample — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Erick All — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Greg Dulcich — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Jaylen Wright — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Joe Burrow — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Kevin Coleman Jr. — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Malik Washington — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Malik Willis — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Mike Gesicki — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Mitchell Tinsley — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Ollie Gordon II — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Ryan Miller — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Samaje Perine — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Seydou Traore — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Tahj Brooks — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Tanner Hudson — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Will Kacmarek — Anytime TD   [CIN@MIA]
  Adonai Mitchell — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Andrew Beck — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Blake Whiteheart — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Braelon Allen — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Carsen Ryan — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Denzel Boston — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Deshaun Watson — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Garrett Wilson — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Geno Smith — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Harold Fannin Jr. — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Isaiah Bond — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Isaiah Davis — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Isaiah Williams — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Jaleel McLaughlin — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Jelani Woods — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Jeremy Ruckert — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Jerry Jeudy — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  KC Concepcion — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Kene Nwangwu — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Kenyon Sadiq — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Malachi Corley — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Mason Taylor — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Michael Burton — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Quinshon Judkins — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Raheim Sanders — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Tylan Wallace — Anytime TD   [CLE@NYJ]
  Adam Prentice — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Adam Trautman — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Alec Ingold — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Bo Nix — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Courtland Sutton — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Derius Davis — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Evan Engram — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  J.K. Dobbins — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Jaylen Waddle — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Justin Herbert — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Keaton Mitchell — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Kimani Vidal — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Ladd McConkey — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Marvin Mims Jr. — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Nate Adkins — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Omarion Hampton — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Oronde Gadsden II — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Quentin Johnston — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  RJ Harvey — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Tre Harris — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Troy Franklin — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Tyler Badie — Anytime TD   [DEN@LAC]
  Amon-Ra St. Brown — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Bam Knight — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Brock Wright — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Devin Duvernay — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Elijah Higgins — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Isaac TeSlaa — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Jackson Meeks — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Jacob Saylors — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Jacoby Brissett — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Jahmyr Gibbs — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Jalen Brooks — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Jameson Williams — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Jared Goff — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Jeremiyah Love — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Kendrick Bourne — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Marvin Harrison Jr. — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Michael Wilson — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Sam LaPorta — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Simi Fehoko — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Sione Vaki — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Tay Martin — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Tom Kennedy — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Trey McBride — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  Tyler Allgeier — Anytime TD   [DET@ARI]
  C.J. Stroud — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Cade Stover — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Calvin Ridley — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Cam Ward — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Carnell Tate — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Chimere Dike — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Dalton Schultz — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Daniel Bellinger — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Dare Ogunbowale — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  David Martin-Robinson — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  David Montgomery — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Elic Ayomanor — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Foster Moreau — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Gunnar Helm — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Jared Wayne — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Jaylin Noel — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Julius Chestnut — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Kayshon Boutte — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Lewis Bond — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Marlin Klein — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Nicholas Singleton — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Nico Collins — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Tony Pollard — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Tyjae Spears — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Wan'Dale Robinson — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Woody Marks — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Xavier Hutchinson — Anytime TD   [HOU@TEN]
  Aaron Rodgers — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Anthony Gould — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Ashton Dulin — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Ben Skowronek — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  DJ Giddens — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  DK Metcalf — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Daniel Jones — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Darnell Washington — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Deion Burks — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Drew Ogletree — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Germie Bernard — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Jaylen Warren — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Jonathan Taylor — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Josh Downs — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Kaden Wetjen — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Keenan Allen — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Laquon Treadwell — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Michael Pittman Jr. — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Mo Alie-Cox — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Pat Freiermuth — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Riley Nowakowski — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Robert Tonyan — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Roman Wilson — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Seth McGowan — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Travis Homer — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Tyler Warren — Anytime TD   [IND@PIT]
  Ashton Jeanty — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Brock Bowers — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Cameron Latu — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Cody White — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Connor Heyward — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Corey Kiner — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Dareke Young — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  DeMario Douglas — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Dont'e Thornton Jr. — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Drake Maye — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Dylan Laube — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Efton Chism III — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Eli Raridon — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Hunter Henry — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Ian Thomas — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Jalen Nailor — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Kirk Cousins — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Kyle Williams — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Mack Hollins — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Malik Benson — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Michael Mayer — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Mike Washington Jr. — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Reggie Gilliam — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Rhamondre Stevenson — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Romeo Doubs — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Tre Tucker — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  TreVeyon Henderson — Anytime TD   [LV@NE]
  Aaron Jones — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Alvin Kamara — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Barion Brown — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Bryce Lance — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  CJ Donaldson — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Chris Olave — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  DeeJay Dallas — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Demond Claiborne — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Devaughn Vele — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Gavin Bartholomew — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Jauan Jennings — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Jordan Addison — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Justin Jefferson — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Juwan Johnson — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Kendre Miller — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Kevin Austin — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Kyler Murray — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Max Bredeson — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Myles Price — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Noah Fant — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Oscar Delp — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  T.J. Hockenson — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Tai Felton — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Treyton Welch — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Tyler Shough — Anytime TD   [MIN@NO]
  Antonio Williams — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Austin Ekeler — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Ben Sinnott — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Cam Skattebo — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Chris Manhertz — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Colson Yankoff — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Dalen Cambre — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Darnell Mooney — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Devin Singletary — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Dyami Brown — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Isaiah Likely — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Jacory Croskey-Merritt — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Jameis Winston — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Jayden Daniels — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  John Bates — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Kaytron Allen — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Luke McCaffrey — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Malachi Fields — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Malik Nabers — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Najee Harris — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Patrick Ricard — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Rachaad White — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Stefon Diggs — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Terry McLaurin — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Theo Johnson — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Thomas Fidone — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Treylon Burks — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Tyrone Tracy Jr. — Anytime TD   [NYG@WSH]
  Ameer Abdullah — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Bhayshul Tuten — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Brenton Strange — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Brian Thomas Jr — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Britain Covey — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Chris Rodriguez Jr. — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Dallas Goedert — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Darius Cooper — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Dontayvion Wicks — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  E.J. Jenkins — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Jakobi Meyers — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Jalen Hurts — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Johnny Mundt — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Josh Cameron — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  LeQuint Allen Jr. — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Makai Lemon — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Nate Boerkircher — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Parker Washington — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Quintin Morris — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Travis Hunter — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Trevor Lawrence — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  Will Shipley — Anytime TD   [PHI@JAX]
  AJ Barner — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Brady Russell — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Brayden Willis — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Brock Purdy — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Christian McCaffrey — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Cooper Kupp — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Deebo Samuel — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Elijah Arroyo — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Emanuel Wilson — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Eric Saubert — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  George Holani — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  George Kittle — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Jacob Cowing — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Jordan Watkins — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Kaelon Black — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Luke Farrell — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Malik Turner — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Mike Evans — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Nick Kallerup — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Rashid Shaheed — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Sam Darnold — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Tory Horton — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Velus Jones Jr. — Anytime TD   [SF@SEA]
  Bauer Sharp — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Brevyn Spann-Ford — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Bucky Irving — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Cade Otton — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  CeeDee Lamb — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Chris Godwin — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Dak Prescott — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Emeka Egbuka — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  George Pickens — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Hunter Luepke — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Jake Ferguson — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Javonte Williams — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Jonathan Mingo — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  KaVontae Turpin — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Kameron Johnson — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Kenny Gainwell — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Ko Kieft — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Luke Schoonmaker — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Payne Durham — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Ryan Flournoy — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Sean Tucker — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Ted Hurst III — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]
  Tez Johnson — Anytime TD   [TB@DAL]

  — MUTED RECEPTIONS —
  Bijan Robinson — Receptions 3.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Drake London — Receptions 6.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Jahan Dotson — Receptions 1.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Kyle Pitts — Receptions 2.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Mark Andrews — Receptions 3.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Rashod Bateman — Receptions 1.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Zay Flowers — Receptions 5.5   [BAL@ATL]
  Dalton Kincaid — Receptions 4.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Davante Adams — Receptions 4.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Kyren Williams — Receptions 2.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Puka Nacua — Receptions 7.5   [BUF@LAR]
  Christian Watson — Receptions 4.5   [CHI@GB]
  Colston Loveland — Receptions 3.5   [CHI@GB]
  D'Andre Swift — Receptions 2.5   [CHI@GB]
  Kalif Raymond — Receptions 3.5   [CHI@GB]
  Luther Burden III — Receptions 4.5   [CHI@GB]
  MarShawn Lloyd — Receptions 2.5   [CHI@GB]
  Matthew Golden — Receptions 4.5   [CHI@GB]
  Rome Odunze — Receptions 3.5   [CHI@GB]
  Skyy Moore — Receptions 1.5   [CHI@GB]
  Tucker Kraft — Receptions 4.5   [CHI@GB]
  Greg Dulcich — Receptions 2.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Malik Washington — Receptions 4.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Ollie Gordon II — Receptions 1.5   [CIN@MIA]
  Denzel Boston — Receptions 3.5   [CLE@NYJ]
  Garrett Wilson — Receptions 6.5   [CLE@NYJ]
  Harold Fannin Jr. — Receptions 4.5   [CLE@NYJ]
  KC Concepcion — Receptions 4.5   [CLE@NYJ]
  Courtland Sutton — Receptions 3.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Evan Engram — Receptions 2.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Jaylen Waddle — Receptions 4.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Marvin Mims Jr. — Receptions 1.5   [DEN@LAC]
  RJ Harvey — Receptions 3.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Troy Franklin — Receptions 1.5   [DEN@LAC]
  Amon-Ra St. Brown — Receptions 7.5   [DET@ARI]
  Isaac TeSlaa — Receptions 2.5   [DET@ARI]
  Jahmyr Gibbs — Receptions 4.5   [DET@ARI]
  Jameson Williams — Receptions 3.5   [DET@ARI]
  Jeremiyah Love — Receptions 2.5   [DET@ARI]
  Kendrick Bourne — Receptions 2.5   [DET@ARI]
  Marvin Harrison Jr. — Receptions 2.5   [DET@ARI]
  Michael Wilson — Receptions 5.5   [DET@ARI]
  Sam LaPorta — Receptions 4.5   [DET@ARI]
  Trey McBride — Receptions 7.5   [DET@ARI]
  Tyler Allgeier — Receptions 1.5   [DET@ARI]
  Carnell Tate — Receptions 4.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Dalton Schultz — Receptions 4.5   [HOU@TEN]
  David Montgomery — Receptions 1.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Elic Ayomanor — Receptions 1.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Gunnar Helm — Receptions 2.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Jaylin Noel — Receptions 1.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Kayshon Boutte — Receptions 2.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Nico Collins — Receptions 5.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Tony Pollard — Receptions 1.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Tyjae Spears — Receptions 1.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Wan'Dale Robinson — Receptions 3.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Woody Marks — Receptions 1.5   [HOU@TEN]
  Xavier Hutchinson — Receptions 1.5   [HOU@TEN]
  DK Metcalf — Receptions 3.5   [IND@PIT]
  Darnell Washington — Receptions 2.5   [IND@PIT]
  Jonathan Taylor — Receptions 2.5   [IND@PIT]
  Josh Downs — Receptions 4.5   [IND@PIT]
  Keenan Allen — Receptions 3.5   [IND@PIT]
  Pat Freiermuth — Receptions 3.5   [IND@PIT]
  Roman Wilson — Receptions 2.5   [IND@PIT]
  Tyler Warren — Receptions 5.5   [IND@PIT]
  Ashton Jeanty — Receptions 3.5   [LV@NE]
  Brock Bowers — Receptions 6.5   [LV@NE]
  Cody White — Receptions 1.5   [LV@NE]
  DeMario Douglas — Receptions 2.5   [LV@NE]
  Hunter Henry — Receptions 3.5   [LV@NE]
  Michael Mayer — Receptions 3.5   [LV@NE]
  Romeo Doubs — Receptions 3.5   [LV@NE]
  Tre Tucker — Receptions 3.5   [LV@NE]
  Aaron Jones — Receptions 2.5   [MIN@NO]
  Chris Olave — Receptions 6.5   [MIN@NO]
  Devaughn Vele — Receptions 3.5   [MIN@NO]
  Juwan Johnson — Receptions 4.5   [MIN@NO]
  Cam Skattebo — Receptions 2.5   [NYG@WSH]
  Darnell Mooney — Receptions 1.5   [NYG@WSH]
  Isaiah Likely — Receptions 4.5   [NYG@WSH]
  Malachi Fields — Receptions 2.5   [NYG@WSH]
  Malik Nabers — Receptions 5.5   [NYG@WSH]
  Bhayshul Tuten — Receptions 1.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Brenton Strange — Receptions 3.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Brian Thomas Jr — Receptions 2.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Dontayvion Wicks — Receptions 3.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Jakobi Meyers — Receptions 3.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Josh Cameron — Receptions 1.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Makai Lemon — Receptions 3.5   [PHI@JAX]
  Parker Washington — Receptions 4.5   [PHI@JAX]
  AJ Barner — Receptions 2.5   [SF@SEA]
  Christian McCaffrey — Receptions 4.5   [SF@SEA]
  Cooper Kupp — Receptions 2.5   [SF@SEA]
  Deebo Samuel — Receptions 3.5   [SF@SEA]
  Emanuel Wilson — Receptions 1.5   [SF@SEA]
  George Holani — Receptions 1.5   [SF@SEA]
  George Kittle — Receptions 4.5   [SF@SEA]
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Receptions 6.5   [SF@SEA]
  Mike Evans — Receptions 3.5   [SF@SEA]
  Rashid Shaheed — Receptions 1.5   [SF@SEA]
  Tory Horton — Receptions 1.5   [SF@SEA]
  Bucky Irving — Receptions 2.5   [TB@DAL]
  Cade Otton — Receptions 3.5   [TB@DAL]
  CeeDee Lamb — Receptions 6.5   [TB@DAL]
  Chris Godwin — Receptions 3.5   [TB@DAL]
  Emeka Egbuka — Receptions 3.5   [TB@DAL]
  George Pickens — Receptions 4.5   [TB@DAL]
  Jake Ferguson — Receptions 3.5   [TB@DAL]
  Javonte Williams — Receptions 2.5   [TB@DAL]
  KaVontae Turpin — Receptions 0.5   [TB@DAL]
  Kenny Gainwell — Receptions 1.5   [TB@DAL]
  Ryan Flournoy — Receptions 3.5   [TB@DAL]
  Ted Hurst III — Receptions 1.5   [TB@DAL]
  Tez Johnson — Receptions 1.5   [TB@DAL]

THE HONEST RANGE
  Simulated 10,000 times, one unit a pick,
  211 picks across 15 games, every pick above.

  A typical week      +22.32u
  Good week  (top 5%) +45.02u
  Bad week (worst 5%) -0.38u
  Week loses money    5% of the time

  Picks in the same game move together. Treating these as
  independent would put the bad week at -0.03u instead of
  -0.38u — the difference is what the overlap costs.

  Even a real edge loses money in plenty of weeks. This range is
  published so nobody has to take a good or bad week as a verdict.

----------------------------------------------------------
  THE PAPER TRAIL · @PaperTrailPicks
  Every pick, every refusal, hash-committed pre-kickoff.
  Not betting advice. For entertainment purposes.
==========================================================